Market Roundup
• UK Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.0%,0.2%forecast,0.3% previous
• UK Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.5%,3.7% forecast,3.6% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% , 0,4% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Sep) 3.6%,1.9% previous
• UK Core RPI (YoY) (Sep) 4.4% ,4.4% previous
• UK Core RPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.4%, 0.4% previous
• UK CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.8%,4.0%forecast3.8% previous
• UK CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.0%,0.3% previous
• UK CPI, n.s.a (Sep) 139.30,139.30 previous
• UK PPI Output (MoM) (Sep) 0.0%,0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
• UK PPI Output (YoY) (Sep) 3.4% 1.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 09:00 Belgium Consumer Confidence (Oct) -1 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 11:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
• 12:25 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for more cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cut path. Friday's release of the September U.S. consumer price report will provide a rare piece of economic clarity amid the official data outage that has accompanied what is now a 21-day government shutdown.Even though the Fed's leading lights appear to have convinced themselves that tariff-related price rises will just be one-off blips, the CPI update is likely to make uncomfortable reading.The consensus forecast is for headline inflation to top 3% for the first time in well over a year, marking a fifth straight month of annual inflation gains. That would put both headline and "core" inflation more than 1 percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, raising the question of whether it's still a target at all .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped on Wednesday as investors digested softer-than-expected UK inflation data. Official figures showed that both headline inflation and a key underlying measure of price growth remained unchanged in September, providing some relief to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves ahead of her November budget.Annual consumer price inflation held steady at 3.8% for the third consecutive month, the highest among advanced economies. The International Monetary Fund has forecast that UK inflation will remain the highest among G7 nations in 2025 and 2026, complicating the Bank of England’s efforts to cut interest rates to support the slowing economy. The BoE expects inflation to gradually ease, reaching its 2% target only in the April-June 2027 period. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3386(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3294(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3265(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian edged higher but gains were limited as investors waited for news on U.S.-China trade talks.Investors are also closely monitoring the progress of U.S.-China trade talks, with officials from both countries set to meet this week in Malaysia.Trump said on Monday that he expects to reach a fair trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom he plans to meet in South Korea next week.Investors also looked forward to the release of the September U.S. consumer price index report on Friday for more cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cut path. Friday's release of the September U.S. consumer price report will provide a rare piece of economic clarity amid the official data outage that has accompanied what is now a 21-day government shutdown. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6524(Oct 22nd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6544(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6476(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6442(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower on Wednesday after surging in the previous session following Sanae Takaichi’s election as prime minister. Takaichi, the first female leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, won Tuesday’s lower house vote to become the next prime minister. Takaichi’s backing of fiscal stimulus and looser monetary policy has kept investors cautious and complicates the Bank of Japan’s efforts to raise rates.Takaichi is expected to take a hardline stance on immigration and defense, reflecting a broader global shift to the right. The yen has lost 2.6% this month as Takaichi jostled to become Japan's prime minister, marking its biggest monthly decline against the greenback since July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.19(Oct 23rd high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.69 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.38 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian equities slipped on Wednesday as renewed uncertainty over a high-level U.S.-China meeting and the postponement of a U.S.-Russia summit weighed on sentiment.
Hang Seng was down 0.96% ,China’sA50 traded up 0.05% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.11%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Wednesday, helped by a weaker dollar and bargain-hunting after a sharp drop in the last session, while investors awaited U.S. inflation data for more cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cut path.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $4,146.47 per ounce, as of 0636 GMT. Bullion fell more than 5% on Tuesday in its steepest drop since August 2020.
Oil prices rose for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, climbing about 2% on sanctions-related supply concerns and hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal.
Brent crude futures rose $1.24, or 2.0%, to $62.56 a barrel as of 0645 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed $1.20, or 2.1%, to $58.44.
