Market Roundup
• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Oct) 6, 7 previous
• Australia Business Survey (Oct)9 , 8 previous
•New Zealand Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 2.3%, 2.3% previous
•Japan 30-Year JGB Auction 3.166% , 3.248% previous
•Japan Economy Watchers Current Index (Oct) 49.1, 47.5 forecast,47.1 previous
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Sep) 4.6%, 4.6% forecast,4.7% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 4.8%, 5.0% forecast,5.0% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Oct) 29.0K,17.6K forecast,0.4K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Sep) -22K,91K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Sep) 5.0%,4.9% forecast,4.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:40 Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction 1.918% previous
•10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) -77.5 forecast, -80.0 previous
•10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 41.0 forecast,39.3 previous
•10:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 23.5 forecast,22.7 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : Euro edged lower on Tuesday as the greenback strengthened on optimism that the historic U.S government shutdown could soon end. The U.S senate on Monday passed a deal to restore federal funding and conclude the longest shutdown on record.Key economic data, including the non-farm payrolls report, have been delayed due to the shutdown. a government reopening in the coming days is expected to provide greater clarity on the U.S economic outlook and the federal reserve’s rate path.last week’s data showed the U.S. economy lost jobs in October, led by declines in the government and retail sectors. meanwhile, a survey released Friday indicated US consumer sentiment fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November amid concerns over the shutdown’s economic impact.Traders are pricing in a roughly 64% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next month, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1560(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1614(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling extended fall against the dollar on Tuesday after data showedUK wage growth slowed in the three months to September, bolstering Bank of England rate cut bets.British wage growth slowed in the three months to September, according to data on Tuesday that will bolster expectations for a Bank of England interest rate cut next month.Wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed slightly to 4.6% in the three months to September compared with a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.Wage growth excluding bonuses in the private sector - a key metric for the BoE - cooled to 4.2% in the three months to September, as the central bank had predicted in forecasts published at the start of the month.The Bank of England is closely watching pay growth for signs of how persistent domestic inflation pressures are likely to prove. BoE officials held interest rates at 4% last week, and hinted that it could reduce borrowing costs in December .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3262(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Tuesday as the greenback strengthened on optimism that the U.S. government could soon reopen after a record shutdown. The U.S. Senate on Monday approved a funding bill to end the 41-day shutdown, sending it to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson aims to pass it by Wednesday before forwarding it to President Donald Trump for approval.On thedata front,, consumer confidence surged in November, with Westpac reporting a 12.8% jump to 103.8 the first reading above the 100 optimism threshold since February 2022, signaling renewed economic optimism and reducing prospects of a near-term rate cut.Looking ahead, traders await Thursday’s October employment report, with a Reuters poll projecting a 15,000 job gain and unemployment steady at 4.4%, data likely to guide short-term direction for the Aussie. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6543(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6594 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6440(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hit nine month high against yenon Tuesday as optimism over a potential US government reopening reduced safe-haven demand. A bill to restore U.S. federal funding and end the nation’s longest-ever shutdown passed an initial Senate test late Sunday, though the timing of final congressional approval remains uncertain. The U.S. government shutdown has pushed back the release of the non-farm payrolls report, prompting traders to look to private sources for labor market indicators.Risk-on sentiment dominated early trading, leading to an pullback in safe havens like the yen and U.S. government bonds.Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions released on Monday showed policymakers were divided over when and whether to raise interest rates again. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
Asian equities climbed on Tuesday as investors cheered the U.S. Senate's approval of a deal to end the country’s longest ever government shutdown.
Hang Seng was up 0.03% ,South Korea’s KOSPI traded up 0.81% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.13%
Commodities’ Recap
Gold strengthened further on Tuesday, hitting its highest level in almost three weeks amid rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut and signs the U.S. government shutdown could soon end.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $4,131.32 per ounce, as of 0636 GMT, hitting its highest since October 23. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $4,137.50 per ounce.
Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on Tuesday, as worries about oversupply outweighed optimism over U.S. government reopening progress and uncertainty surrounding sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil.
Brent crude futures fell 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $63.94 a barrel by 0426 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.99 a barrel, down 14 cents or 0.2%.
