Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Expectations4.6%, 4.0% previous
• New Zealand Inflation Expectations (QoQ) (Q1) 2.1%,2.1% previous
• UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4) -0.7%, 4.4% previous
• UK Construction Output (MoM) (Dec) -0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
• UK U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Dec) 1.5%, 1.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
• UK GDP (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.4%, 1.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
• UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• UK GDP (YoY) (Dec) 1.5%, 1.0% forecast, 1.1% previous
• UK Index of Services 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) 0.5%, 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
• UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) -1.9%, -2.1% forecast, -2.0% previous
• UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Dec) -1.4%, -1.9% forecast, -1.1% previous
• UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) 0.7%, 0.0% forecast, -0.3% previous
• UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Dec) 0.1%, -0.1% previous
• UK Trade Balance (Dec) -17.45B, -18.60B forecast, -18.90B previous
• UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec) -6.10B, -7.19B previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 10:00 Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) -0.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
•10:10 EUR Italian 3-Year BTP Auction 2.85% previous
•10:10 EUR Italian 7-Year BTP Auction 3.49% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose to a one-week high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as news that Washington aims to begin talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine overshadowed a hotter-than-expected U.S. consumer prices reading overnight.U.S. President Donald Trump said late on Wednesday that both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him.Trump has also ordered top U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine.The euro climbed to $1.044025, its highest since February 5, and was last up 0.49% at $1.0434. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0445(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0509(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0393(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0340(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling jumped on Thursday after data showed the British economy unexpectedly grew in the final quarter of last year, offering some respite from an otherwise downbeat economic outlook. Britain's economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of last year, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Thursday.GDP rose by 0.4% in December from November, much stronger than the 0.1% forecast and driven by stronger-than-expected 0.4%growth in the large services sector.Last week the Bank of England halved its forecast for growth in 2025 to 0.75%, although other forecasters such as the National Institute of Economic and Social Research remain more upbeat with a 1.5% growth forecast.The pound rose 0.57% to $1.25155 against the dollar, to its highest in over a week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2528(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2441(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2395(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2238(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied on Thursday as talk of a possible pause in the Russian-Ukraine war boosted risk sentiment. Risk sentiment improved after President Donald Trump proposed a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, along with the possibility of peace talks. This news triggered a bounce in stocks, while the U.S. dollar gave back some of its recent gains.Tariffs continued to be a point of contention, with Trump indicating that he might sign reciprocal levies on Wednesday or Thursday. At GMT 05:34, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.23% to $0.6292 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6321(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6381(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6249(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6183(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar remained near a one-week high against the Japanese yen following a hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI report.U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years, up by 0.5% in January versus the previous month, while core index rose by 0.4%. Both were expected to rise by 0.3%.Headline consumer price added 3.0% for the year, while core prices rose at an annual pace of 3.3%.Market players are increasing bets the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer, pricing in roughly 28 basis points worth of rate cuts for this year, versus around 37 basis points before the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.22(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.94(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.92 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian equities gained as U.S.-Russia talks raised expectations for a potential end to the war in Ukraine..
Japan’s Nikkei was up 1.26% , South Korea's KOSPI was up by 1.36 %,Hang Seng was up by 0.77%
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Thursday as markets monitored U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, which could escalate the global trade war, while investors awaited key U.S. data later in the day.
Spot gold added 0.6% to $2,922.29 per ounce as of 0528 GMT, moving back towards its record peak of $2,942.70 hit on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.7% to $2,949.30.
Oil prices dropped about 1% on Thursday as expectations grew that a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal could end sanctions disrupting supply, while crude inventories increased in the U.S., the world’s top producer.
Brent futures were down 81 cents, or 1.1%, at $74.37 a barrel by 0735 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 81 cents, or 1.1%, to $70.56.
