Australia's Wine Export Surge to China Loses Steam Amid Global Decline

Australia’s wine export boom to China is losing momentum, as global wine consumption falls and Chinese demand weakens. Following Beijing’s removal of tariffs on March 29, 2024, Australia exported just over A$1 billion ($640 million) of wine to China in the year to March 2025, nearing the record A$1.15 billion set in 2020, according to Wine Australia. However, exports have slowed sharply, with only A$126 million shipped in the first quarter of 2025—the weakest January-March performance since 2016.

While the 2024 export surge helped drive China’s first annual increase in wine imports since 2018, broader trends remain negative. Imports from traditional suppliers like France, Chile, and Italy have more than halved since 2018. Although Australia has regained ground, Peter Bailey, market insights manager at Wine Australia, warned that "continued growth for Australia is not assured."

China’s initial trade barriers, imposed in 2020 amid political tensions, led to a severe wine glut in Australia, causing grape prices to plunge and forcing vineyard closures. Even with renewed access to China’s market, Wine Australia noted that oversupply issues persist, as China is now importing fewer but more expensive bottles.

Compounding the challenge, Australia’s wine exports to other global markets also declined in the 12 months to March 2025. Bailey suggested Australia might gain an advantage if China imposes new tariffs on U.S. wine, potentially curbing about $50 million in American wine exports annually, and from Canada’s growing shift away from U.S. wines, but stressed it is too early to assess the impact.

Australia’s wine industry, while benefiting from renewed access to China, faces uncertainty as global consumption patterns shift and competition intensifies.