Australia's growth forecast looks on track

The November RBA Board meeting is, along with the February, May and August meetings, of special significance, because it includes the discussion of new comprehensive forecast revisions, which can trigger a change of assessment of the economic outlook of the Board.

Meanwhile, retail sales have been expanding steadily in value terms and given the low CPI reading, were probably strong in volume terms, pointing to solid growth in private consumption.

"Aside from the cuts of the shorter-term inflation outlook, substantial changes are not expected. The growth outlook from August looks to be on track: the weak Q2 GDP expansion was expected (the RBA's 2% yoy estimate was spot on the official 2.0% release), and the 2½% end-2015 forecast is close (Q3 GDP looks to have rebounded strongly, mainly owing to a large swing from negative to positive in the net export contribution, judging by currently available data)", says Societe Generale. 

Further ahead, the shifts in the oil and exchange rate assumptions would tend to raise the GDP path slightly. Other inputs into the forecasting process, such as growth expectations for the rest of the world and the pace of decline in resource investment are likely to be changed little, if at all. 

In fact, over the past three months, there are signs that the RBA has become a bit more upbeat about the prospects for non-resource investment. That at least is the impression we got from the minutes of the meetings.