BOJ Faces Pressure for Clarity, but Neutral Rate Estimates Likely to Stay Vague 
RBI Cuts Repo Rate to 5.25% as Inflation Cools and Growth Outlook Strengthens 
Oil Prices Slip in Asia as 2026 Supply Glut Fears and Russia-Ukraine Talks Weigh on Markets 
China’s November Economic Data Signals Slowing Industrial Output and Weak Consumer Demand 
Fed Near Neutral Signals Caution Ahead, Shifting Focus to Fixed Income in 2026 
Asian Currencies Trade Sideways as Dollar Weakens Ahead of Key U.S. Data 
Wall Street Futures Slip as Tech Stocks Struggle Ahead of Key US Economic Data 
U.S. Dollar Slips Near Two-Month Low as Markets Await Key Jobs Data and Central Bank Decisions 
Asian Fund Managers Turn More Optimistic on Growth but Curb Equity Return Expectations: BofA Survey 
ECB Signals Steady Rates Ahead as Policymakers Warn of Inflation Risks 
Asian Stocks Edge Higher as Tech Recovers, U.S. Economic Uncertainty Caps Gains 
Japan’s Finance Minister Signals Alignment With BOJ as Rate Hike Speculation Grows 
Bank of Korea Downplays Liquidity’s Role in Weak Won and Housing Price Surge 
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged through June, according to a Reuters survey conducted from April 14–21. Out of 56 economists, 84% anticipate no rate change at the April 30-May 1 and June 16-17 policy meetings. While a slight majority now forecast a 25-basis-point hike to 0.75% in the third quarter, support has dropped from 70% last month to 52%.
Economists point to U.S. President Donald Trump's fluctuating tariff policies as a major source of uncertainty. Although the BOJ's policy path remains largely intact, the outlook has dimmed due to tariff-related disruptions, especially in manufacturing. Trump's latest moves include a 25% tariff on U.S. car imports and a temporary 10% rate on all Japanese goods, down from an earlier 24%.
Despite these challenges, 87% of surveyed economists believe the risk of recession in Japan remains low. Most respondents agree that the BOJ will lower its economic growth forecast in its next outlook report but is unlikely to cut interest rates. Instead, the bank is expected to emphasize that rising wages and stable inflation support gradual tightening.
Among 39 economists who forecast the timing of a hike, 28% chose July—down from 70% in March—while 23% now expect no increase until 2026 or later. Analysts like Atsushi Takeda from Itochu Research note that while exports may fall, a strong yen and subdued consumer prices could help support domestic demand and corporate earnings.
Markets currently price in a 65% chance of a BOJ rate hike by year-end, reflecting cautious optimism amid geopolitical headwinds and shifting trade dynamics.
