BofA: AMD Continues to Outpace Intel with Market Share Gains in 2024

Bank of America’s latest analysis reveals AMD has significantly outpaced Intel, gaining 15% in market share in Q3 2024. While Intel struggles with declining PC shipments, AMD thrives with a stronger presence in the Western consumer and desktop markets. BofA anticipates AMD’s continued growth into 2025.

BofA Report Highlights AMD’s 15% Market Share Gain as Intel Struggles with Weak PC Shipments

The story of an underdog rising to dominate the pack is playing out in the microchip industry as Intel, facing increasing challenges, cedes market share to AMD once the runt of the sector. According to data from Bank of America (BofA) in a recent investment note, Intel's position is weakening, with AMD gaining significant ground.

According to Wccftech, BofA leveraged data from Mercury Research to analyze CPU trends for the third quarter of 2024. The investment bank found that Intel undershot its expectations, with its PC shipments declining by approximately 3 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). In comparison, the market demand grew by 7.5 percent, according to IDC’s Q3 PC sell-through estimate. Meanwhile, AMD capitalized on Intel's struggles, increasing its market share by an impressive 15 percent QoQ.

BofA attributes this discrepancy to Intel and AMD's differing market mixes, noting that "AMD has a greater mix of Western consumer and desktop markets, whereas Intel has more exposure to China, enterprise, and notebook markets, which remain weak."

On a more positive note, Intel and AMD raised their average selling prices (ASPs) by around 5 percent QoQ, partly driven by the higher prices of AI-focused PC products.

BofA Predicts AMD’s Server Growth and Market Share Will Reach 27% by 2026

In the server market, BofA observed that AMD’s Q3 shipments grew by 7 percent QoQ and 10 percent year-over-year (YoY), following two quarters of relatively weak performance due to the normalization of CPU inventories. Although AMD’s server ASPs remained flat QoQ, BofA expects a positive trend in Q4 and into 2025 as the company ramps up the production of new products with higher core counts.

Looking ahead, BofA forecasts AMD's CPU market share to reach approximately 27 percent by 2026, up from a previous estimate of less than 25 percent and a mere 19 percent in 2023. The investment bank’s note underscores its belief that AMD will continue to gain share, driven by its strong position in both the PC and server markets.

BofA Remains Bullish on AMD Despite Rising Competition from Arm-Based Processors in Servers

However, BofA also highlights the growing competition from Arm-based vendors, particularly in the server space. In Q3 2024, Arm-based server CPUs reached 7 percent of the market, a sharp rise from less than 5 percent in 2023 and approximately 1 percent in 2022. This trend challenges AMD’s growth as Arm-based processors gain traction in critical segments.

Despite this, BofA remains optimistic about AMD’s prospects, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The bank cites its share gains in both the PC and server markets and its momentum in accelerators. The bank also holds a positive outlook for Arm, noting its increasing content gains in mobile and PC markets.

On the other hand, BofA continues to hold an "Underperform" rating on Intel, citing its CPU share losses and limited growth in accelerators.

BofA’s analysis of AMD’s market dynamics aligns with a similar assessment by Rosenblatt, which recently predicted that AMD could capture a "double-digit GPU compute share" by 2025, even without a product that significantly outperforms NVIDIA’s.