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Brazil’s central bank raised its benchmark Selic rate by 100 basis points to 13.25% on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive hike and signaling another increase in March. The decision, made unanimously by the bank’s rate-setting committee (Copom), comes amid surging inflation and economic concerns.
Under new central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo, policymakers emphasized their commitment to controlling inflation, which is projected to reach 5.2% in 2025—well above the 3% target. Rising private inflation expectations, strong economic growth, and labor market pressures have fueled the need for further monetary tightening.
The anticipated March hike would push the Selic rate to 14.25%, its highest level in over eight years. Analysts suggest rates could peak at 15% by May, with some predicting a potential climb to 15.50% by year-end if inflation expectations remain unanchored. Experts argue that only structural government adjustments could stabilize public finances and reduce the need for aggressive monetary policy.
The central bank's moves contrast with the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has paused rate hikes, widening the gap between the two economies. Market concerns over Brazil’s fiscal situation have also weakened the real, trading at 5.86 per U.S. dollar compared to 4.95 a year ago, exacerbating inflation by increasing import costs.
While financial markets have stabilized since December, interest rate futures remain elevated. The central bank projects 12-month inflation at 4% for the third quarter of 2026, reflecting persistent challenges in controlling price increases.
As Brazil grapples with inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, the central bank remains data-driven, keeping future rate hikes on the table.
