Canada’s Liberals Surge in Polls Amid U.S. Tariff Threats and Trump Comparisons

Canada’s ruling Liberals have made a dramatic comeback, closing a 26-point gap in six weeks to tie with the opposition Conservatives, according to three new polls. This shift comes as U.S. President Donald Trump threatens tariffs on nearly all Canadian imports and suggests annexing Canada as the 51st U.S. state.

An Ipsos poll released Tuesday shows the Liberals at 38% public support, with the Conservatives at 36%. A Leger poll places the Conservatives at 38% and Liberals at 35%, while an Ekos survey has them at 38% and 37%, respectively. These numbers suggest a tight race, with neither party likely to secure a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons, potentially leading to an unstable minority government.

The Conservative strategy has long focused on attacking unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but his resignation announcement last month after nine years in power shifted the political landscape. The Liberals, set to elect a new leader on March 9, have gained momentum by linking Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to Trump in campaign ads, capitalizing on rising anti-Trump sentiment.

During Tuesday's Liberal leadership debate, frontrunners called for strong countermeasures against the U.S. and criticized Poilievre’s alignment with Trump. Former central bank governor Mark Carney stated, "Poilievre worships Trump. He’s not the right person for Canada at this crucial time." Former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland warned that "Trump poses the gravest challenge to Canada since World War II."

With an election required by Oct. 20 but potentially coming sooner, the Liberals’ rising support could reshape the political landscape, setting the stage for a highly competitive race.