Citigroup Delays Fed Rate Cut Forecast Amid Strong Jobs Data and Inflation Concerns 
U.S. Futures Slip as Iran Rejects Ceasefire and Trump Deadline Looms 
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Sparks Global Oil Supply Fears 
India's Services Sector Growth Slows to 14-Month Low in March Amid Rising Costs 
Oil Crisis Escalates: Trump Threatens Iran as Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Prices Above $110 
Asian Markets Hold Steady Ahead of Trump's Iran Deadline as Oil Tops $110 
Morgan Stanley: Fed Rate Cuts Still on Track Despite Oil-Driven Inflation 
Dollar Holds Steady as Yen Nears Critical 160 Level Amid Iran War Escalation 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Gold Prices Slip in Asia as Iran Strait Deadline Looms 
The financial market reaction post-Trump’s win in the US presidential election has been at odds with what was anticipated by many prior to the result. The reaction to date may be too optimistic on the reflation trade, indeed there remains much uncertainty about what a Trump presidency can deliver. Markets also appear to be discounting the geopolitical risks from a Trump presidency.
Further, capital flows continue to exit EM, accelerating post-Trump’s presidential victory. The US CPI is expected to rise sharply again in October amid higher energy prices. Core pressures are set to remain modest. Fed Chair Yellen testifies to Congress on Thursday and it is expected that she will reinforce the view that December is very live for a rate hike, ANZ reported.
Trump’s policy fiscal proposals at face value seem highly stimulatory: he wants to spend up big on infrastructure. The President needs Congress’ support for appropriation and revenue bills. However, on trade the President has considerable unilateral power.
Further, for households, Trump has proposed cutting the seven marginal tax rates to just three, 33, 25 and 12 percent. He also wants to slash the corporate tax rate to 15 percent from 35 percent. Also, under the new personal income tax thresholds, high-income taxpayers would receive the biggest cuts, both in dollar terms and as a percentage of income.
Trump also intends to label China a currency manipulator as a possible precursor to implementing tariffs. Also, he has plans to withdraw membership from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. This action could actually reduce the US’s global bargaining power, harm his other trade goals, and ultimately dampen US growth.
"As we look into 2017 and 2018, a number of Trump’s proposals appear inflationary (stimulatory fiscal policy and tariffs) which suggests the Fed may need to tighten a lot more aggressively than is currently priced by the market and by us," ANZ commented in the report.
