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Long-delayed September 2025 Core PCE numbers were at last published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on December 5, showing a modest 0.2% month-over-month rise — exactly in line with agreement and matching August's result. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator continues to softly cool; the yearly rate dropped to 2.8%, considerably lower than some earlier expectations and confirming the narrative of disinflation without major economic suffering.
Though the late report—originally scheduled for weeks ago—highlights persistent data-release problems, it brought no shocks: consumer spending fell in September, therefore controlling price pressures. Policymakers get new confirmation that the inflation battle is in its latter stages as the index currently sits well above the Fed's 2% goal, but certainly trends down from August's 2.91% y/y figure.
Markets greeted the statistics with a shrug since the soft landing scenario still intact. The September Core PCE, along with strong growth and resilient labor statistics, opens the door for the Federal Reserve to think about a stop or modest cuts in 2026, while celebrating victory over the post-pandemic inflation surge is nearly achievable.
