Dollar Gains as Trump’s Tariff Plan Fuels Trade War Fears

The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday after President Donald Trump announced plans for new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. This move pressured the euro, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar while fueling concerns over a global trade war. Trump also stated he would introduce reciprocal tariffs matching other countries' levies, with details expected Tuesday or Wednesday.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.0317, nearing last week’s two-year low of $1.0125, as investors braced for Trump’s tariffs on Europe. The Australian dollar fell 0.21% to $0.6264, while the New Zealand dollar dipped 0.12% to $0.5649. The Canadian dollar, impacted by its position as the largest U.S. aluminum supplier, weakened by over 0.2%.

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, noted that China is no longer a major U.S. steel supplier due to past tariffs but warned of increased market uncertainty and a shift toward protectionism.

Investors now await U.S. inflation data on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, where tariffs are expected to be a key topic. Analysts suggest new tariffs could drive inflation and pressure the Fed to maintain high interest rates. Markets have adjusted expectations, now pricing in 36 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, down from 42 bps after a strong jobs report.

Macquarie strategists revised their Fed outlook, predicting no rate cuts in 2025, keeping rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range. The dollar index remained steady at 108.23. Sterling held at $1.23915, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.4% to 152 per dollar but stayed near Friday’s one-month high amid expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike.