Dollar Slips to Seven-Week Low as Weak Jobs Outlook Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets

The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level in nearly seven weeks on Tuesday, pressured by concerns that upcoming labor market revisions could expose deeper cracks in the economy. The dollar index slipped to 97.344 in Asia trade, the weakest since July 24, ahead of the release of preliminary benchmark revisions for jobs data covering April 2024 to March 2025. Economists expect as many as 800,000 jobs to be revised lower, potentially signaling that the Federal Reserve is lagging in its push for maximum employment.

“The employment numbers are getting worse at a heavy rate,” said Alex Hill, managing director at Electus Financial. “That’s translating into a weaker U.S. dollar slowly, but we expect that to accelerate.”

Adding to the pressure, reports suggest Trump administration advisors are preparing a critique of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after President Donald Trump dismissed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer last month, accusing her of falsifying data. Investors warn political interference in monetary policy and rising fiscal risks are weighing on long-term U.S. bond sentiment.

Markets are now pricing an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with a 10.6% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch data. Gold remained near record highs at $3,636.58, while the euro rose 0.1% to $1.1774, supported despite political turmoil in France after parliament ousted the government.

Elsewhere, the yen strengthened to 147.22 per dollar following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, the Australian dollar traded at $0.6598, the New Zealand dollar at $0.5943, sterling at $1.3556, and China’s offshore yuan held steady at 7.1212. The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at Thursday’s meeting.