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ECB Rate Cuts: A Historic Move
Traders increased their bets on rapid European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts after the bank announced its first consecutive cuts in 13 years. On Thursday, the ECB lowered its deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%, following a similar move in September. This marks the first back-to-back cut since 2011.
Economic Outlook and ECB Policy
A deteriorating economic outlook and signs of controlled inflation prompted the ECB's decision. Policymakers emphasized their commitment to a data-driven approach, stating they would maintain restrictive monetary policy as necessary.
Market Reactions and Predictions
With ECB President Christine Lagarde facing minimal pushback, traders are increasingly pricing in a 29 bps cut for the upcoming December meeting. Some analysts anticipate the possibility of a more substantial 50 bps cut, given the current economic conditions.
Euro's Performance and Future Risks
The euro fell to $1.0811, its lowest point since early August. As traders predict 160 bps of cuts by the end of 2025, eurozone government bonds have shown resilience, outperforming U.S. Treasuries in October. However, the euro remains vulnerable, especially with uncertainties surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Conclusion
The ECB's recent rate cuts reflect a significant shift in monetary policy amid economic challenges. As traders adjust their expectations, the euro and eurozone markets face ongoing scrutiny.
