EUR/PLN is expected to move back towards the 4.35 mark over the coming quarter, after having slipped on Friday, following disappointment in the current account data during the month of August.
Poland’s current account deficit for the month turned out to be EUR1.05 billion, compared to EUR331 million market expectations. This was driven partly by the trade deficit itself coming in EUR420 million, wider than what had been forecasted.
Further, a lesser amount of fund flow from the European Union and a generally wider income deficit added to the fall in Polish zloty. The latter reflects, at least partly, the impact of a weaker GBP which depresses the value of income transfers from Polish workers in the U.K., Commerzbank reported.
On the trade balance front, the worsening trade deficit is similar to what is happening in Turkey, where falling oil prices had lent a major helping hand over the past year, but the effect is now seen to have started reversing.
"Both the current-account components are now subject to zloty-negative dynamics, the reason we forecast EUR-PLN to move back towards 4.35 over the coming quarter," Commerzbank commented in its latest research report.
