The euro surged to its highest level since late 2021, climbing to $1.1589 before settling at $1.1568, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing uncertainty over the U.S.-China trade truce. Concerns flared after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered some personnel to withdraw from the Middle East, warning it could become a "dangerous place" and reiterating his stance on preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Safe-haven demand drove gains for the Swiss franc, which rose 0.8% to 0.8138, and the Japanese yen, which climbed 0.6% to 143.70. Analysts pointed to the weakening U.S. dollar as a barometer of sentiment around the fragile trade environment. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.35% to 98.108, hitting its lowest point since April 2022.
The euro also gained strength from a hawkish European Central Bank, signaling a potential pause in its easing cycle following inflation’s return to the 2% target. ECB official Isabel Schnabel attributed the euro’s strength to renewed investor confidence rather than rate differentials.
On trade, Trump hinted at extending a July 8 deadline for talks but confirmed the U.S. would issue “take-it-or-leave-it” offers to multiple countries, keeping tariff risks alive. Analysts warn these moves could keep pressure on U.S. inflation, especially with core PCE data still showing elevated price levels.
Meanwhile, the onshore Chinese yuan rose slightly to 7.1818, though future gains remain limited due to ongoing trade tensions. Barclays expects medium-term depreciation risks for the yuan.
Markets have now priced in two Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, with an 80% probability of a September move and full pricing of 100 basis points in cuts by late 2026.


Malaysia Q2 Economy Grows 5.8%, Beating Forecasts on Strong Tech Exports and Domestic Demand
U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Select Brazilian Imports After Section 301 Trade Investigation
Port of Los Angeles Posts Record June Cargo Volume as Importers Rush Ahead of U.S. Tariffs
US Stock Futures Fall as Netflix Outlook, Chip Selloff and Iran Tensions Weigh on Markets
Nikkei Plunges 5% as AI Stock Selloff Spreads Across Asia
Gold Prices Head for Biggest Weekly Loss Since June as Fed Rate Outlook Weighs
ECB's Kocher Says No Inflation Spillover Yet From Iran Conflict, Warns Risks Remain
US Stock Futures Hold Steady as Soft Inflation Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears
Oil Prices Rise as U.S. Strikes on Iran Raise Strait of Hormuz Supply Fears
Asian Stocks Rise as Softer U.S. Inflation Boosts Sentiment Despite Middle East Tensions
Asian Currencies Hold Steady as Middle East Tensions Offset Weaker US Dollar
Asian Stocks Rally as Cooling U.S. Inflation Boosts Fed Rate Cut Hopes
Dollar Slides as Softer US Inflation Dims Fed Rate Hike Expectations
China Home Prices Fall Again in June Despite Slower Pace of Decline
IEA Warns China Rare Earth Export Curbs Could Threaten $6.5 Trillion in Global Production
Gold Prices Slip as Oil Rally Fuels Inflation Fears, Strengthens Dollar 



