Market Roundup
- UK May Service PMI 56.5 vs 59.5 previous, 59.2 expected.
- White House advisor- Greece potential accident, wrong to think could be contained.
- Iraq oil minister- Will increase exports by 100k BPD in June.
- EU Group President- Will take part in talks with Greek PM on Wednesday.
- Greek Govt spokesman- Tsipras won't meet EU Group President.
- Dutch PM- Grexit can't be ruled out.
- UK May Nationwide House price index +4.6% yy vs 5.2% previous, 4.7% expected.
- Germany May Service PMI 53.0 vs 52.9 Previous, 52.9 expected.
- Euro zone April Retail Sales 2.2% yy vs 1.6% previous, 2.0% expected.
- Euro zone April Jobless 12.4% vs 11.3% previous, 11.2% expected.
- Euro zone May final Service PMI 53.8 vs 53.3 previous, 53.3 expected.
- China May HSBC services PMI 53.5, April 52.9, new business up most since '12.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0700 ET/1100 GMT) US MBA Mortgage Application Indices.
- (0815/1215 GMT) US ADP National Employment Rpt consensus +200k, previous +169k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Canada April Trade Balance consensus -2.1bln, -3.02bln previous.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) International Trade April consensus -$44.0b, previous -$51.4b.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) Markit Services PMI final May flash 56.4.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI May consensus 57.0, previous 57.8.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) EIA Weekly Petroleum Statistics.
Key Events Ahead
- (1145 ET/1545 GMT) Fed Trade ops 30-yr Ginnie Mae max $1.000b.
- (1400 ET/1800 GMT) Beige Book.
- (1415 ET/1815 GMT) FRB Chicago's Evans at banking symposium; Chicago.
- (1600 ET/2000 GMT) FRB St. Louis's Bullard media event.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported just above 1.1100 levels and currently trading at 1.1119 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1188 and low at 1.1102 levels. The pair dipped to 1.1102 levels even though the data released in the Euro zone showed retail sales ticked higher in April, while the unemployment rate declined in May. The ECB is having is monthly economic meeting today later in a day and upcoming EUR direction will depend on Draghi's speech. Initial support is seen at 1.1050 and resistance is seen around 1.1245 levels. Option expiries are at 1.1000 (1BLN), 1.1050 (454M), 1.1100 (584M), 1.1205-20 (1BLN), 1.1275 (803M), 1.1300 (1.2BLN).
USD/JPY is supported above 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.47 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.78 and currently trading at 124.47 levels. The pair recovered after the greenback remains undermined by strengthening EUR/USD as markets remain optimistic about Greece and also continue to cheer the recent upbeat EZ retail sales and unemployment data. Near term resistance is seen at 124.68 levels and support is seen at 123.51 levels. Option expiries are at 123.00 (1BLN), 124.00 (650M), 124.60 (240M), 125.00 (425M).
GBP/USD is supported below $1.5300. It made an intraday high at 1.5374 and low at 1.5252 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5278 levels. Sterling sank by a full cent against the dollar on Wednesday after a survey of the British service sector came in sharply below forecasts, pointing to another subdued round of overall economic growth in the second quarter. The pound fell to $1.5252 from $1.5357 in response before gaining a foothold. It also weakened to 72.97 pence per euro from 72.57 pence before the numbers. Initial support is seen at 1.5250 and resistance is seen around 1.5343 levels.
USD/CHF is supported above 0.9300 levels and trading at 0.9360 levels and made intraday low at 0.9301 and high at 0.9369 levels. Today was data free session for Switzerland. Markets await the key data from US - the ADP private employment report, which will shed light on Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report. Near term support is seen at 0.9285 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9430 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.7800 levels and trading at 0.7768 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7817 levels and low at 0.7755 levels. The Aussie maintained a bid tone this session, boosted by upbeat Q1 GDP numbers which unexpectedly beat market expectations. Australia's economy grew 0.9% in the March quarter, against forecasts of GDP growth of 0.7% in Q1, after the economy grew only 0.5% in the December quarter. Looking ahead, the major market mover will come when the European Central Bank meets in Frankfurt, followed by a press conference from bank President Mario Draghi and key data from US. Initial support is seen at 0.7689 and resistance at 0.7877 levels. Option expiries are at 0.7650 (454M), 0.7700 (446M), 0.7800 (683M).
