- EUR/USD recovered to 1.1095 after drop to 1.0969 after Greece 'No' vote.
- Single currency off sharply to 1.1023 in choppy trade.
- Market speculation of SNB intervention. EUR/CHF lifted from 1.0356 Asian lows to 1.0455.
- Greek finance minister Varoufakis resigns after voters reject bailout terms.
- Greece needs a real new start. An exit from the currency union is overdue.
- Varoufakis replacement for finance minister post to be announced after political leaders meeting.
- Greece chief negotiator Tsakalotos favoured to become new finance minister.
- France Sapin- Greece must come back with proposals now.
- Spain economic minister- Greece should remain part of the euro.
- ECB Noyer- ECB Greek debt cannot be restructured.
- Euro group expects new proposals from Greece on Tuesday.
- German finance minister Spokesman- Debt cut for Greece is not on the agenda for us.
- EZ July SENTIX index 18.5 vs previous 17.1. 15.0 expected.
- Switzerland sight deposits at 457.865bln week ending July 3 fm 456.577bln previous week.
- Switzerland June CPI 0.1% m/m, -1.0% y/y vs previous 0.2%/-1.2%. -0.1%/-1.2% expected.
- Fitch- Public debt to remain high under Japan fiscal plan.
- BOJ Osaka Branch Manager- Negatives of weak yen above 125.
- BOJ Nagoya Branch Manager- Companies want a stable currency.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) Markit Services PMI (final June) flash 54.8.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Labour Market Conditions Index Change (June) previous +1.3.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Conference Board Employment Trends Index (June) previous 128.6.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI (Jun) consensus 56.0, previous 55.7.
Key Events Ahead
- (1145 ET/1545 GMT) Fed Trade operation 30-yr Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (max $2.225 bn).
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported above 1.1000 levels and currently trading at 1.1035 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1094 and low at 1.0967 levels. The euro fell below $1.10 in the early trading hours in Asia after a vote that a number of major banks made a 'Grexit' the most likely option to end months of crisis, but the common currency rebounded quickly and in morning trade in Europe was down just 0.5 percent at $1.1057. The euro started early morning Asian trading lower, shedding as much as 2% after the Greeks voted to refuse further austerity measures, conditions requested from a debt-ridden country by international creditors. A No vote implies the ECB will cancel Greek bank funding which then hastens a Grexit. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is reportedly holding an emergency meeting on banking sector liquidity on Monday. Initial support is seen around 1.0952 and resistance is seen around 1.1218 levels. Option expiries are at 1.1000 (956M), 1.1015 (1.1BLN), 1.1100 (1.7BLN).
USD/JPY is supported above 122.00 levels and posted a high of 122.72 levels. It has made intraday low at 121.83 and currently trading at 122.70 levels. The major extends its recovery from six-week lows reached on Greek referendum led flight to safety which boosted the JPY bulls across the board. The yen bulls were in complete control versus the greenback in early moves as traders flocked to safety-havens such as gold, treasuries, yen etc., after uncertainty gripped the markets as the Greek referendum ended in landslide 'NO' victory for Greek government led by Tsipras. In the week ahead, Greek story will continue to remain in the spotlight while Fed minutes release will also be closely watched for hints on the timing of the Fed rate-hike. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 121.48 levels. Option expiries are at 121.50 (510M), 122.00 (390M), 123.50 (917M), 124.00 (834M).
GBP/USD is supported above $1.5500 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5596 and low at 1.5531 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5555 levels. Britain's service sector recovered from its steepest slowdown in nearly four years in June, a private survey showed on last Friday, and exceeding estimates. Markit services purchasing managers' index (PMI) booked 58.5 during the sixth month of the year, compared to the 56.5 in May. Today is data thin calendar, market will eye on Greek story for the further movement in the parity. Initial support is seen at 1.5486 and resistance is seen around 1.5737 levels.
USDCHF is supported above 0.9400 levels and trading at 0.9455 levels and made intraday low at 0.9406 and high at 0.9461 levels. Today Switzerland released CPI data with flat numbers as expected at 0.1% vs 0.2% previous release. Near term support is seen at 0.9341 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9500 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.5500 levels and trading at 0.7487 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7520 levels and low at 0.7461 levels. The Australian dollar hasn't had its best week falling sharply from above the key 0.77 level to a new six year low below 0.75. The Australian dollar was heavily sold-off across the board in Asia after Australia's May retail sales missed expectations while the April revision also discouraged markets. A pickup in jobs growth is set to come to an end amid downward pressure on employment in mining and manufacturing. Job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers rebounded in June, rising 1.3 per cent, following a flat result in May, ANZ seasonally-adjusted figures show. Oil prices posted steep falls on Monday after the outcome from the Greek referendum boosted the US dollar, making the commodity less attractive. Oil started to trade the new week on a weaker note, with a stronger greenback weighing on prices following the results of the Greek referendum vote. Markets sentiment will be driven mainly by this week's economic news from Australia as the RBA's cash rate decision is scheduled on Tuesday while labour data report for June is due on Thursday. Initial support is seen at 0.7400 and resistance at 0.7647 levels. Option expiries are at 0.7500 (324M), 0.7550 (562M), 0.7650 (444M).
