Market Roundup
•Spanish May Manufacturing PMI 54.0, 52.5 forecast,52.2 previous
•Italian May Manufacturing PMI 45.6,47.9 forecast,47.3 previous
•French May Manufacturing PMI 46.4,46.7 forecast,45.3 previous
•German May Manufacturing PMI 45.4, 45.4 forecast,42.5 previous
•EU May Manufacturing PMI 47.3,47.4 forecast, 45.7 previous
•UK May Manufacturing PMI 51.2,51.3 forecast,49.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.657% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.697% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.503% previous
•13:30 Canada May Manufacturing PMI 50.2 forecast,49.4 previous
•13:45 US May Manufacturing PMI 50.9 forecast,50.0 previous
•14:00 US Apr Dallas Fed PCE 2.90% previous
•14:00 US Total Vehicle Sales 15.80M forecast,15.74M previous
•14:00 US Apr Construction Spending (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•14:00 US May ISM Manufacturing Prices 60.0 forecast,60.9 previous
•14:00 US May ISM Manufacturing Employment 48.6 previous
•14:00 US May ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.8 forecast,49.2 previous
•14:00 US May ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index49.1 previous
•17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 2.7% forecast,2.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as investors awaited key interest rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) later this week. On the data front, HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, showed new orders declined at their slowest pace in two years, leading to improved business confidence. All eyes are now on the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday, where the central bank is expected to cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) from its record-high levels.Market participants anticipate rate cuts owing to the encouraging signs of easing inflation in the region. However, the May inflation reading ticking higher has cast doubts on the number of rate cuts this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0875(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0902(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0805(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0739(50% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against dollar on Monday ahead of an ECB policy meeting on Thursday when the central bank is seen as almost certain to cut rates.The comments from ECB officials will be in focus for traders along with economic projections as they assess whether the central bank will provide further cuts after Thursday in the wake of data showing a rise in euro zone inflation in May . The European Central Bank is seen almost certain to trim rates by a quarter point to 3.75% on Thursday, and this could make it the first major central bank to cut rates this cycle. Investor attention this week will also be on the ISM manufacturing survey later in the day, as well as payrolls data on Friday to gauge the strength of U.S. labour market. Sterling fell 0.2% to $1.2715. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2759(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2817(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2688(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2627(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors awaited multiple U.S. economic reports this week for clues on health of the economy. Investors will look at the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) nationwide PMI reading expected at 1400 GMT, Wednesday's ADP employment report and non-farm payrolls data due on Friday.Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is seen almost certain to trim rates by a quarter point to 3.75% on Thursday, and this could make it the first major central bank to cut rates this cycle. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others , was up 0.1% at 104.67. The index fell 1.56% in May but is up 3% for the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9036 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9069 (May 31st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9012(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen on Monday as investors warmed to the idea that U.S. inflation may have slowed enough for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2024. Investors are a lot less dovish on the Fed, seeing little prospect of a move until September, though the odds of a move then increased after Friday's inflation data. They price in only a 50% chance of a second cut by December.The outlook could change this week given data due includes key surveys on services and manufacturing, and the May payrolls report in which unemployment is seen holding at 3.9% as 190,000 net new jobs are created. The yen , this year's worst performing G10 currency hurt by low Bank of Japan interest rates, edged higher against the dollar at 157.040, but was close to last week's four-week low of 157.715. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.40(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.89(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.77(50% fib), a break below
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday, tracking gains in Asian equities, while investors braced for a key interest rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) later this week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.82 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.41percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices traded flat on Monday as investors awaited multiple U.S. economic reports this week for clues on health of the economy, after a recent inflation report suggested the Federal Reserve might have room for rate cuts in 2024.
Spot gold was unchanged at $2,326.79 per ounce, as of 0914 GMT, after hitting its lowest since May 9 earlier in the session. Bullion gained 2% in May and about 13% year-to-date.U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,347.20.
Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors digested the complex deal brokered by producer group OPEC+ to extend various layers of output cuts, much of them into 2025.
Brent crude futures for August delivery were down 9 cents at $81.02 a barrel by 1209 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery slipped 14 cents to $76.85.
