Market Roundup
•French May CPI NSA (MoM) 0.00%,0.50% previous
•French May CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.0%forecasst,0.5% previous
•French May CPI NSA (YoY) 2.30%,2.20% previous
• French May HICP (YoY) 2.6%,2.7% forecasst,2.4% previous
• French May Inflation (YoY) 2.20%,2.10% previous
• French May HICP (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•EU Apr Trade Balance 15.0B,17.0B forecast,24.1B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Apr Wholesale Sales (MoM) 2.6% forecast,-1.1% previous
•12:30 US May Export Price Index (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.5% previous
•12:30 US May Import Price Index (MoM) 0.0% forecast ,0.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 1.3% forecast ,-2.1% previous
•12:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 172.1K previous
•12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) -1.0% previous
•12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) 1.1% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:00 US Jun Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.3% previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Consumer Expectations 70.0 forecast,68.8 previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Consumer Sentiment 72.1 forecast,69.1 previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Current Conditions 71.0 forecast,69.6 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 492 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 594 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was on track for its biggest weekly fall in two months versus the dollar on Friday due to French political turmoil. The euro is on track for a 1% weekly fall - its biggest since April - and was last down 0.4% on the day at $1.0696.The euro's weakness has helped drive the dollar higher. The dollar index - which tracks the currency against six peers - was up 0.3% on the day and 0.6% on the week at 105.57.French markets endured another brutal sell-off on Friday as political uncertainty unleashed the biggest weekly jump in the premium investors demand to hold French government debt since 2011 and bank stocks tumbled. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0743(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822(23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0689 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0615(61.8% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined on Friday a as investors grappled with uncertainty around the outlook for interest rates and political turmoil in Europe.Markets appear to be taking Britain's own general election largely in their stride so far, with the opposition Labour party currently projected to win comfortably next month.Labour has tacked to the centre ground in recent years which has helped reassure businesses, although some of their policies have unnerved the super-rich.The Bank of England (BoE) is set to meet on June 20 to determine its monetary policy, with markets betting the central bank will hold the benchmark interest rate at 5.25%, despite the European Central Bank cutting earlier this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2754(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2676(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2602(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors pondered the outlook for US rates after the Federal Reserve tempered its rate-cut views even as inflation came in softer than expected. On the macro level, markets remain focused on when the US central bank will cut rates and by how much after event-filled week.Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased to a 10-month high last week, while producer prices unexpectedly fell in May.That followed Wednesday's cooler-than-expected consumer inflation report and the Fed's revised dot plot, which lowered rate-cut expectations this year from three to one. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8948 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8995(23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8815 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8873 (61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained against yen on Friday after Bank of Japan to trimmed bond buying, kept rates steady. As widely expected, the BOJ kept its short-term policy rate target in a range of 0-0.1% by a unanimous vote. It also left unchanged the pace of monthly bond buying at roughly 6 trillion yen ($38 billion). The BOJ's efforts to normalise monetary policy come as other major central banks, having already tightened monetary policy aggressively to combat soaring inflation, look to cut rates. Japan's battered currency, down roughly 10% on the dollar so far this year, has become a headache for policymakers by inflating import prices, which in turn boosts living costs and hurts consumption. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.83(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.86(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.64 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares lost ground on Friday, with the benchmark index poised for a weekly loss as investors remained on the sidelines amid the political uncertainty in France.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 1.22 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 2.13 percent.
Commodities Recap
Brent oil futures prices were steady on Friday and on course for their best week in more than four months after solid projections for crude oil and fuel demand.
Brent crude futures were up 38 cents, or 0.46%, at $83.13 a barrel by 1210 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures gained 27 cents, or 0.34%, to $78.89.
