Market Roundup
•EU May CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•EU May CPI (YoY) 2.6%, 2.6% forecast,2.4% previous
•German Jun ZEW Current Conditions -73.8,-65.0 forecast,-72.3 previous
•German Jun ZEW Economic Sentiment 47.5,49.6 forecast,47.1 previous
•EU May Core CPI (MoM) 0.4% ,0.4% forecast,0.7% previous
•EU May Core CPI (YoY) 2.9%,2.9% forecast,2.7% previous
•EU May HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 2.9%,2.9% forecast,2.8% previous
•EU Jun ZEW Economic Sentiment 51.3 ,47.8 forecast,47.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US May Retail Control (MoM) -0.3% previous
•12:30 US May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•12:30 US May Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US May Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) -0.1% previous
•12:30 US May Retail Sales (YoY) 3.04% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY)5.5% previous
•13:15 US May Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.3% previous
•13:15 US May Industrial Production (YoY) -0.38% previous
•13:15 US May Capacity Utilization Rate78.6% forecast,78.4% previous
•13:15 US May Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•14:00 US Apr Business Inventories (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•14:00 US Apr Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.3% forecast,-0.2% previous
•17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 3.1% forecast,3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•15:40 US Fed Collins Speaks
•17:00 US FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
•17:00 US Fed Logan Speaks
•18:00 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar Tuesday as political turmoil in Europe pushed investors towards the safety of the U.S. currency. French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election following a trouncing of his ruling centrist party in the European Parliament elections.Focus will now be on commentary from central bank officials around the world, with at least six U.S. Federal Reserve officials and European Central Bank's Vice President Luis de Guindos slated to speak throughout the day. On the data front, The recovery in German investor morale tapered off in June, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday, reporting a modest rise in its economic sentiment index that fell short of forecasts.The economic sentiment index rose to 47.5 points from 47.1 points in May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0743(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822(23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0689 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0615(61.8% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped to trade around a one-month low against the dollar on Tuesday as investors waited for inflation figures on Wednesday and the Bank of England's interest rate decision the day after that. The BoE's monetary policy committee (MPC) is widely expected to leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday, though investors will scrutinise the accompanying statement for any hints about when borrowing costs might fall.Consumer price index (CPI) data due on Wednesday is expected to show Britain's inflation rate fell back to the BoE's 2% target in May, from 2.3% in April.Sterling was down 0.17% on Tuesday at $1.2683 as the dollar strengthened against most currencies . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2754(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2676(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2602(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders awaited a U.S. retail sales report. U.S. retail sales data is due at 1230 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET) and is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month pick-up in May after zero growth in April. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was last up 0.18% to 105.46. It lost 0.2% on Monday as it retreated from Friday's six-week high of 105.80.The greenback has been pulled in different directions as mild U.S. inflation readings contrasted with an overall hawkish stance by Fed officials at last week's policy meeting, when they trimmed their previous median projection for three quarter-point rate cuts this year to one. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8948 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8995(23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8815 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8873 (61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained against yen on Tuesday as investors digested Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo comments. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could raise interest rates next month depending on economic data available at the time, underscoring its resolve to steadily push up borrowing costs from current near-zero levels. A weak yen complicates the BOJ's policy path. While it accelerates inflation by pushing up imported goods prices, the subsequent rise in living costs has weighed on consumption and cast doubt on the strength of Japan's economy.Many economists expect the BOJ to hike interest rates to 0.25% this year, though they are divided on whether it will come in July or later in the year.The dollar rose 0.26% to 158.13 yen , moving back towards Friday's six-week high of 158.26. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.83(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.86(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.64 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Tuesday after posting steep declines last week, buoyed by gains in banks stocks, with focus now on more data and commentary from central banks' officials to gauge their monetary policy path.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.44 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.06 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.39 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as Treasury yields eased, with market participants awaiting U.S. data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for more clarity on the central bank's roadmap for interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,323.97 per ounce, as of 0326 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,339.00.
Oil prices were stable on Tuesday, as traders awaited signs of a hoped-for summer demand boost to prop up prices even as strong supply threatens to blunt gains.
Benchmark Brent crude futures were down 2 cents to $84.23 per barrel at 1231 GMT after climbing in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures , which also rose on Monday, were up 3 cents to $80.36 a barrel.
