Market Roundup
•UK May Core CPI (MoM) 0.5% , 0.9% previous
•UK May CPI, n.s.a 133.90, 133.50 previous
•UK May CPI (MoM) 0.3%.,0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK May RPI (YoY) 3.0%, 3.1% forecast,3.3% previous
•UK May CPI (YoY) 2.0%, 2.0% forecast,2.3% previous
•UK May Core RPI (MoM) 0.3% ,0.5% previous
•UK May RPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•EU Apr Current Account 38.6B ,35.2B forecast, 35.8B previous
•EU Apr Current Account n.s.a 34.4B ,44.5B previous
•UK House Price Index (YoY)1.1% ,2.0% forecast,1.8% previous
•EU Apr Construction Output (MoM) -0.19%, -0.70% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Jun NAHB Housing Market Index 45 forecast,45 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•17:30 Canada BOC Summary of Deliberations
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro remained close to its recent lows on Wednesday as concerns that a new government in France could weaken fiscal discipline kept investors cautious. Analysts flagged that the single currency was far from pricing any serious threat to the financial stability of the euro area bloc.National Rally's (NR) leader, Marine Le Pen, said she sought cohabitation with President Emmanuel Macron and would be respectful of institutions, triggering expectations that NR could backtrack on fiscally expensive pledges if it should win the elections in early July.The European Commission on Wednesday proposed widely expected disciplinary steps against France, Italy and five other European Union countries over running excessive budget deficits. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0759(June 18Th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0782(23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0734 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0679(23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose slightly versus the euro and the dollar after data showed British inflation returned to the Bank of England's 2% target in May for the first time in nearly three years.The drop in annual consumer price inflation from April's 2.3% reading was in line with economists' median expectation in a poll and marks a sharp decline from the 41-year high of 11.1% reached in October 2022 . Markets priced an around 25% chance of a Bank of England rate cut in August, down from 50% before data, and 44 basis points of monetary easing in 2024, down from almost half percentage point before figurese BoE holds its policy meeting on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2754(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2676(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2602(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after a softer-than-expected report on consumer spending.Retail sales rose 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in April, the U.S. Commerce Department said. The result was below expectations of economists polled by Reuters for a gain of 0.3%, and indicated economic activity was slowing as higher interest rates affect consumer spending patterns. Other data showed U.S. business inventories rebounded in April, increasing by 0.3% after slipping 0.1% in March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8904 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8963(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8829 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8789 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar struggled for direction against yen on Wednesday as U.S. retail sales suggested that economic activity remained lacklustre and the Federal Reserve will cut rates sooner. U.S. retail sales barely rose in May and figures for the prior month were revised considerably lower, data showed on Tuesday, suggesting economic activity remained lacklustre in the second quarter.That slightly boosted the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 67% from 61% a day earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Investors focus now shifts to U.S. weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and flash purchasing managers' indexes on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 158.83(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.13(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.46(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.14 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were flat in lacklustre trade on Wednesday as losses in heavyweight healthcare and technology stocks undercut gains in mining and travel shares, while British shares lagged following the release of inflation data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.06 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.53 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Wednesday after data suggesting lacklustre U.S. economic activity kept alive hopes for at least one interest rate cut this year.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,330.27 per ounce as of 1156 GMT. Prices rose about 0.4% in the previous session.
Oil prices held steady, with Brent crude futures at $85.39 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures were at $81.68.
