Market Roundup
•Finnish Feb Unemployment Rate 7.7%, 7.7% previous
• GfK Apr German Consumer Climate -27.4,-27.9 forecast,-29.0 previous
•Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q4)2.0%,2.0%forecast,1.8% previous
•Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.6%, 0.6% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) -0.4% previous
•12:30 US Feb Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -7.4% previous
•12:30 US Feb Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US Feb Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.2% forecast,-6.1% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY)3.4% previous
•13:00 US Jan S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) -0.3% previous
•13:00 US Jan S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 6.6% forecast,6.1% previous
•13:00 US Jan House Price Index (YoY) 6.6% previous
•13:00 US Jan S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Mar Richmond Manufacturing Shipments -15 previous
•14:00 US Mar CB Consumer Confidence 106.9 forecast,106.7 previous
•14:00 US Mar Richmond Services Index -16 previous
•15:30 US Mar Texas Services Sector Outlook -3.9 previous
•15:30 US Mar Dallas Fed Services Revenues 5.2 previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.1% forecast,2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Tuesday as investors gauged the likely path of interest rates from the Federal Reserve ahead of key inflation data due later in this holiday-shortened week. This week's economic data calendar is fairly light ahead of the Federal Reserve's favoured inflation measure on Friday, which could provide clues on the U.S. interest rate outlook.The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index is seen rising 0.3% in February, which would keep the annual pace at 2.8%. The euro was last up 0.18% at $1.0866. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0876(20SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0906 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0800(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0763 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Tuesday as pound gained on increased speculation that the Bank of England might implement an interest rate cut in June . The Bank of England's decision to maintain interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday, coupled with Governor Bailey's remarks indicating that inflation trends support potential interest rate cuts, set the stage for market reactions. Bailey's comments to the Financial Times on Friday, suggesting that rate cuts are indeed being considered this year, contributed to a further decline in the pound's value. Traders now see a roughly 75% chance the BoE cuts rates by June, up from about 35% at the start of last week, according to money market pricing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2673(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2729 (March 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2567(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2485(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors gauged mixed messages from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers that clouded the outlook for monetary policy easing. Comments from Fed officials left doubts hanging over the timing of rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook urged caution and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated Friday remarks trimming his expectations to one cut.Markets now await the personal consumption expenditure data the Fed's preferred inflation measure due on Friday, for further cues on its interest rate path. The dollar was up 0.28% at 0.9022 francs , a four month high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9023(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9050(Nov 13th 2023 high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8970(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8921(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar little changed against yen on Tuesday as verbal intervention by Japanese officials continued, while the dollar was on the back foot. Despite that rate increase, traders continue to focus on the remaining stark interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world, particularly the United States. In 2022, Japanese authorities intervened in currency markets to support the yen, and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Tuesday said he would not rule out any measures to cope with the yen's weakening, echoing a warning from Tokyo's top currency diplomat the previous day. This week's economic data calendar is fairly light ahead of the Federal Reserve's favoured inflation measure on Friday, which could provide clues on the U.S. interest rate outlook. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.93 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.39(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.85(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 150.12(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares gained traction on Tuesday as investors gauged mixed messages from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers that clouded the outlook for monetary policy easing.
At (GMT 12:16 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.34 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday supported by a weaker dollar as investor focus turns to U.S. inflation data due later this week, which could shed more light on the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year.
Spot gold rose 1.1% to $2,196.21 per ounce by 1122 GMT.
Oil was little changed on Tuesday after rising in the previous session as investors took a more mixed view toward the loss of Russian refinery capacity after recent Ukrainian attacks while a slightly weaker U.S. dollar offered some support.
Brent rose 1.5% in Monday's session while WTI gained 1.6% higher after Russia's government ordered companies to cut output in the second quarter to meet a 9 million barrels per day (bpd)target to comply with pledges to the OPEC+ consumer group.
