Market Roundup
• UK Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% , 0.3% forecast , 0.4% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Sep) 0.0% , 0.0% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Sep) 1.4% , 1.3% previous
• UK Core RPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.4% , 0.6% previous
• UK Core RPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.0%, 2.8% previous
• UK CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.0% , 0.1% forecast , 0.3% previous
• UK CPI (YoY) (Sep) 1.7% , 1.9% forecast , 2.2% previous
• UK CPI, n.s.a (Sep) 134.20 , 134.30 previous
• UK PPI Input (YoY) (Sep) -2.3% , -2.2% forecast , -1.0% previous
• UK PPI Input (MoM) (Sep) -1.0%, -0.5% forecast , -0.3% previous
• UK PPI Output (YoY) (Sep) -0.7% , -0.6% forecast , 0.3% previous
• UK PPI Output (MoM) (Sep) -0.5% , -0.3% forecast , -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (Sep) -0.7% previous
•12:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (Sep) -0.4% forecast , -0.7% previous
•12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 0.8% previous
•12:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep) -0.3% forecast , -0.3% previous
•12:30 US Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Aug) -1.5% forecast ,1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Wednesday as investors kneely awaited European Central meeting on Thursday. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, and is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, with investors' focus on whether President Christine Lagarde will give any hints about policymakers longer term expectations, important for the euro's future path. The euro edged 0.05% lower to $1.0887, and earlier touched $1.0882, matching the low from Tuesday, which was the weakest level since Aug. 8. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0895(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0917(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0880(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0863(July 16th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling tumbled to its lowest in two months on Wednesday after softer than expected British inflation data offered scope for the Bank of England to cut rates more forcefully,The pound dropped to as low as $1.2984, dipping under the $1.30 level for the first time since Aug. 20, after data showing the rate of annual consumer price inflation dropped to 1.7% in September from 2.2% in August.That was the lowest reading since April 2021, was under the 1.9% forecast by a Reuters poll of economists. It reinforced bets on a BoE interest rate cut next month and made a further cut in December more likely. At GMT 12:18 ,sterling recovered a little ground and was last 0.42% lower on the day at $1.3018Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2981(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2928 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dipped against dollar on Wednesday as soft New Zealand inflation readings bolstered bets for aggressive monetary easing. New Zealand's consumer price index(CPI) rose 0.6% in the third quarter, below forecasts of a 0.7% increase. Annual inflation also slowed to 2.2% from 3.3% the previous quarter and back within the central bank's target band of 1-3%.A measure of non-tradable inflation, which is largely domestic goods and services, remained high at 4.9%, although it did ease from 5.4% the previous quarter.Markets are still betting on a half-point cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in November after it stepped up policy easing with a reduction of the same magnitude just this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as dollar was supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest interest rate cuts. Recent data indicating a resilient economy coupled with slightly hotter-than-expected inflation in September have led market participants to trim bets for an aggressive U.S. rate reduction. Traders currently lay 92% odds for a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed next decides policy on Nov. 7, with an 8% probability of no change, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A month ago, traders saw greater than 29% odds of a super-sized 50-basis-point reduction. The dollar added 0.1% to 149.34 yen, not far from Monday's high of 149.98 yen, the strongest since Aug. 1. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.83(Oct 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.70(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Europe's tech and luxury stocks slumped on Wednesday after disappointing results from industry heavyweights ASML and LVMH, while caution loomed ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.82 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices extended gains to a second session on Wednesday, driven by weaker equities and bond yields, while traders eagerly await U.S. economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's timeline on a potential rate reduction.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,675.25 per ounce, as of 1033 GMT, and trading about $10 below a record high of $2,685.42 scaled last month. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $2,691.90.
Oil steadied on Wednesday, supported by OPEC+ cuts and uncertainty over what may happen next in the Middle East conflict, although an outlook for ample supply next year added downward pressure.
Brent crude oil futures were down 33 cents, or 0.4%, at $73.92 a barrel by 1110 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 38 cents, or 0.5%, to $70.20.
