Market Roundup
•UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Dec): -0.6%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous.
•UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Dec): 0.3%, 1.1% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•Switzerland CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•Switzerland CPI (YoY) (Dec): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•France Reserve Assets Total (Dec): 362,743.0M, 359,393.0M previous.
•France Exports (Nov): 52.2B, 51.8B previous.
•France Trade Balance (Nov): -4.2B, -4.3B forecast, -3.5B previous.
•France Imports (Nov): 56.4B, 55.3B previous.
•France Current Account (Nov): -0.80B, 1.40B previous.
•Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Nov): 6.3%, 6.4% forecast, 6.4% previous.
•Eurozone PPI (YoY) (Nov): -1.7%, -1.9% forecast, -0.5% previous.
•Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectation (Dec): 26.7, 24.3 previous.
•Eurozone Business Climate (Dec): -0.56, -0.66 previous.
•Eurozone Selling Price Expectations (Dec): 10.9, 9.9 previous.
•Eurozone Business and Consumer Survey (Dec): 96.7, 97.0 forecast, 97.1 previous.
•Eurozone Industrial Sentiment (Dec): -9.0, -9.1 forecast, -9.3 previous.
•Eurozone Services Sentiment (Dec): 5.6, 5.9 forecast, 5.8 previous.
•Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Dec): -13.1, -14.6 forecast, -12.8 previous.
•Eurozone PPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 213K forecast, 199K previous.
•13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Oct): -1.40B forecast, 0.15B previous.
•13:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3): 0.0% forecast, 1.0% previous.
•13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3): 4.9% forecast, 3.3% previous.
•13:30 US Trade Balance (Oct): -58.10B forecast, -52.80B previous.
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,900K forecast, 1,866K previous.
•13:30 US Exports (Oct): 289.30B previous.
•13:30 US Imports (Oct): 342.10B previous.
•13:30 Canada Imports (Oct): 64.08B previous.
•13:30 Canada Exports (Oct): 64.23B previous.
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 218.75K previous.
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Oct): -0.2% previous.
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Oct): 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•15:00 US Natural Gas Storage: -109B forecast, -38B previous.
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Dec): 3.2% previous.
•15:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.590% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Thursday as mixed U.S. economic data left markets cautious ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. labour market appeared stuck in a "no hire, no fire" state, with job openings falling more than expected in November while hiring eased. Traders are pricing in at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, although a divided central bank indicated in December there would be only one cut in 2026. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady at its meeting this month. Markets have kept geopolitical concerns in the background, focusing on economic data instead. The euro was down 0.05% at $1.1669 on Thursday, after dropping by 0.45% in the last two sessions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1716(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1730(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1656(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1638(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Thursday as stronger dollar and fading risk appetite weighed on British currency The greenback edged up after mixed U.S. economic data left markets cautious ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.Near term sterling moves will be dollar-driven, as clearer indications about the UK economy will have to wait for gross domestic product data due next week and jobs data the week afte .Sterling was down 0.1% at $1.3444 against the greenback, after hitting $1.3567 on Tuesday, its highest level since September 18.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3485(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3446(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3376(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday as investors continued to assess the prospect of a February interest rate hike after mixed inflation data. Data released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose 3.4% in November from a year earlier, slower than October's alarmingly high 3.8%, but a key measure of core inflation increased to 3.2% for the year, staying stubbornly above the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band of 2% to 3%.The RBA has already warned it could raise its cash rate if inflation doesn't cool sufficiently, and markets imply a 31% chance that the central would hike by a quarter point at its meeting on February 3.All eyes will be now on the quarterly inflation data, due later this month, which will likely carry more weight in the RBA's upcoming policy decision. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.66590(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen but downside was limited as traders remained reluctant to place major bets before the release of economic reports. Markets largely shrugged off global geopolitical tensions this week, with currencies remaining mostly stable despite U.S. action in Venezuela and rising China–Japan frictions.The Bank of Japan said on Thursday regional economies are gradually recovering, with many firms seeing the need to keep raising wages, reinforcing optimism that could support further interest rate hikes.The central bank said all nine regions were either picking up or gradually recovering, keeping its economic assessment unchanged from three months ago.The BOJ will factor regional branch input into its growth and inflation review at the January 22–23 meeting, with many analysts expecting rates to remain unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.28 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.22 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares extended their losses on Thursday following weak retail earnings from several major companies, while softer gold and copper prices weighed on overall market sentiment.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rebounded on Thursday after two sessions of losses, as investors weighed developments in Venezuela and reports of progress on proposed U.S. sanctions targeting countries trading with Russia.
Brent crude futures were up 99 cents, or 1.7%, at $60.95 a barrel by 1245 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 93 cents, or 1.7%, to $56.92.
Gold prices slipped on Thursday as investors prepared for futures selling linked to a commodity index reshuffle, while a stronger U.S. dollar added pressure by making the metal more expensive for overseas buyers.
Spot gold fell 0.7%to $4,420.09 per ounce, as of 1228 GMT. U.S. gold futures for February delivery fell 0.8%to $4,427.70.
