Market Roundup
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q3): 1.3%, 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous.
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•UK Current Account (Q3): -12.1B, -19.1B forecast, -21.2B previous.
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3): 1.5%, -0.3% forecast, -1.7% previous.
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q3): 2.7%, 0.7% forecast, 3.2% previous.
• Italian PPI (YoY) (Nov): -0.2%, 0.1% previous.
• Italian PPI (MoM) (Nov): 1.0%, -0.2% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.6%forecast, 1.6% previous.
• 13:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) (Nov): 5.8% previous.
• 13:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.3% forecast, 1.5% previous.
• 13:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (Nov): 6.0% previous.
• 13:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep): -0.12 previous.
• 14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.146% previous
• 14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.079% previous
• 14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.117% previous
• 16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.560% previous
• 16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.495% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Monday recovering from of the previous week after the European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged and signalled that further rate cuts were unlikely for at least another year. Money markets currently show that traders expect euro zone rates to remain unchanged through 2026, with a roughly 50/50 chance of a first increase by around April 2027. ECB President Christine Lagarde, in her post-decision press conference, maintained her view that the central bank is in a good position with its monetary policy. Financial markets are likely to remain subdued as traders book profits ahead of the long holiday period.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1766(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1795(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1705(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1649(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound extended gains on Monday after last week’s BoE rate cut, with policymakers signalling a high bar for further easing amid persistent inflation. Sterling rose 0.48% to around $1.3438, up over 1% this month and about 7% year-to-date.Interest rate dynamics continue to drive sterling, with expectations of further Fed cuts weighing on the dollar, the ECB seen on hold, and the BoE’s narrow vote highlighting lingering inflation concerns. Meanwhile, Official data showed GDP grew just 0.1% in the third quarter, in line with estimates, with April-June growth revised down to 0.2% from 0.3%. The figures suggest higher taxes and sticky inflation are weighing on activity, despite increased household spending and reduced savings.The slowdown raised concerns about consumer resilience and corporate earnings heading into 2026.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3450(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3480(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3369(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3304(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors awaited the RBA’s December meeting minutes for clearer policy guidance. The minutes, due at 00:30 GMT on Tuesday, may shed light on the central bank’s inflation outlook and rate bias.U.S. data this week including Q3 GDP, October durable goods orders, and November industrial production will also be in focus for near-term dollar direction. The Australian dollar is up 7% this year, snapping four straight years of losses, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations the RBA may resume rate hikes next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6633(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6682(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6591(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6576(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased from a one-month high against the yen as Japan’s top currency diplomat signaled possible intervention, prompting traders to cut long-dollar positions. Atsushi Mimura said authorities would take “appropriate” action against excessive FX moves, keeping intervention risks alive after last week’s central bank meeting triggered renewed yen weakness. His comments echoed Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s warning over speculative yen moves amid rising import costs and household expenses.The BOJ raised rates to 0.75% from 0.5% on Friday, the highest in 30 years, narrowing the gap with the U.S. Federal Reserve. Markets now await the BOJ meeting minutes on Wednesday, with the governor set to speak to a Japanese business lobby on Christmas Day.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.91 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.61 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Monday as weakness in some sectors offset gains in technology and commodities, with investors starting a holiday-shortened week on a cautious note after Friday’s record close.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.45 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.38 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged past $4,400 an ounce for the first time on Monday on U.S. rate-cut expectations and safe-haven demand, with silver also hitting a record high.
Spot gold climbed 1.7% to $4,410.54 per ounce as of 1139 GMT, after hitting a record high of $4,420.01 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 1.3% to $4,443.90 per ounce.
Oil prices climbed on Monday after the U.S. intercepted an oil tanker off Venezuela and heightened Russia–Ukraine tensions raised supply disruption fears.
Brent crude futures gained $1.11, or 1.84%, to $61.58 a barrel by 1124 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $1.04, or 1.84%, to $57.56.
