Market Roundup
• Spanish Trade Balance (Aug) -6.00B,-4.01B previous
• UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Oct) -38,-28 forecast,-27 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity (Sep) -0.12 previous
•12:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.3%forecast, -1.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.0% forecast,-0.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) -0.8% previous
14:00 US Existing Home Sales (Sep) 4.06M forecast,4.00M previous
14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.2% previous
15:00 US Fed Composite Index (Oct) 4 previous
15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) 4 previous
15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.030% previous
15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.960% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 08:30 BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Thursday as traders waited for the delayed release of U.S. consumer inflation data on Friday and digested trade threats between Washington and Beijing. Investors will closely follow the US-China trade discussions, as President Donald Trump indicated on Wednesday that he expects to secure agreements with Chinese President Xi Jinping in next week’s South Korea summit. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, scheduled for release on Friday, is the week’s key market event, carrying potential implications for the Federal Reserve. Fed funds futures imply a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis points cut to interest rates at the U.S. central bank's meeting on October 29, compared with a 98.3% chance on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied on Thursday having tumbled the day before after cooler-than-expected British inflation data caused traders to bring forward expectations on Bank of England rate cuts.British inflation unexpectedly held steady in September the Wednesday data showed, below both market and Bank of England expectations, causing forecasters to predict price rises have now peaked and will fall in the coming months.As a result, markets raised bets on Bank of England easing this year, and now see roughly a three in four chance the BoE cuts rates by 25 basis points by December, with a small chance it moves at its meeting next month.Sterling was last down 0.13% on the day at $1.3339 having dropped as low as $1.3307 on Wednesday in the aftermath of the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3386(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3294(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3265(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher as investors awaited the U.S. inflation report and the upcoming US-China trade talks. Market participants are closely monitoring the progress of discussions, with officials from both countries set to meet this week in Malaysia. President Trump said on Monday that he expects to reach a fair trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their scheduled meeting in South Korea next week.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, due Friday, is the week’s key market event and could have significant implications for the Federal Reserve. The release will provide a rare glimpse of economic clarity amid a 21-day U.S. government shutdown that has disrupted official data reporting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6524(Oct 22nd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6544(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6476(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6442(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday as the market awaited details of a big stimulus package from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing an economic stimulus package that is likely to exceed last year's $92 billion to help households tackle inflation, government sources familiar with the plan said on Wednesday.The package of more than 13.9 trillion yen ($92.19 billion) is Takaichi's first major economic initiative since the advocate of big fiscal spending took office on Tuesday, reflecting a commitment to what she calls "responsible proactive fiscal policy.Investors are closely watching Takaichi's spending plans as Japan is one of the world's most indebted economies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
EquitiesRecap
European shares rose on Wednesday, led by healthcare stocks after a U.S.-Pfizer deal eased sector uncertainty, even as concerns persisted over a possible delay in the release of U.S. monthly jobs data.
At (GMT 12:25),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.59 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.30 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as U.S. sanctions against Russia and possible new export controls on China added to geopolitical risks, buoying demand for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $4,114.06 per ounce, as of 1121 GMT. Bullion fell to a near two-week low in the previous session.
Oil prices rose 5% on Thursday after the U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil , over the Ukraine war, extending gains from the previous session.
Brent crude futures were up $3.39, or 5.4%, at $65.98 a barrel at 1018 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $3.31, or 5.7%, at $61.81.
