Market Roundup
•Spanish HICP (YoY) (Nov) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 1.8% previous
•Spanish HICP (MoM) (Nov) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.3%, 0.7% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.2%, 2.1% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.6%, 2.4% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.2%, 0.5% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.2%, 0.3% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.2%, 0.4% previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Oct) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.2% previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (Oct) 16,577.4B, 16,548.7B previous
•EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Oct) 1.2%, 1.1% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Oct) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Nov) 95.8, 95.1 forecast, 95.7 previous
•EU Business Climate (Nov) -0.77, -0.93 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Nov) -13.7, -13.7 forecast, -12.5 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Nov) 17.7, 13.5 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Nov) 7.1, 6.7 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Nov) 5.3, 6.2 forecast, 6.8 previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Nov) -11.1, -13.2 forecast, -12.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 German CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:00 German CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.3% forecast, 2.0% previous
•13:00 German HICP (YoY) (Nov) 2.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•13:00 German HICP (MoM) (Nov) -0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Sep) 4.62% previous
•13:30 Canada Current Account (Q3) -8.6B forecast, -8.5B previous
•14:00 US Dallas Fed PCE (Oct) 1.70% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•17:00 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Thursday as investors awaited German inflation data for further clues on German economy. German inflation figures and France's budget challenges took center stage, with concerns over the economic and political stability of Europe's key economies, while the threat of U.S. tariffs continued to cast a shadow over the region. With U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, trading volumes were light and market moves muted in Asia. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer spending increased in October but the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation ticked up to 2.3% in October, from 2.1% the previous month. Together with the prospect of higher tariffs on imported goods, solid spending and inflation could narrow the scope for interest rate cuts next year. The euro was last down at $1.0542. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0592(Nov 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0634(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0531(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0415(23.6%fib)
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against a firm dollar on Thursday and gained slightly versus the euro in a quiet trading session due to a U.S. holiday. The pound retreated 0.1% at $1.26625 but was still headed for its best week in 11 as the greenback slid this week. Trading volume was thin across markets as U.S. stocks and bonds markets were shut due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Investors were also preparing to close the books on a volatile month that pushed up the dollar to over four-month highs and weighed on most major currencies. Investors are still absorbing Trump's promises to impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% tariff on goods from China once he takes office in January, a move that could provoke retaliation from those countries. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2709(Nov 20th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2755(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2652(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2526(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped against dollar on Thursday as investors assessed Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate outlook .The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept its cash rate at 4.35% for a year now and seems in no hurry to start cutting given still elevated core inflation. Markets imply the RBA will only ease to around 3.80% by the end of next year, compared with 3.30% for the RBNZ. Investors are still awaiting further developments after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's pledges to impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China when he takes office in January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6580(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6466(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6436(Nov 26th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as investors digested the latest economic data and the potential impact of policies from the incoming U.S. administration, including tariff threats. Investor reactions to the data reflected concerns over President-elect Donald Trump's late Monday threat to impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada upon taking office in January, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Trading is expected to be light due to U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kicking off from Thursday. The dollar index was marginally higher on Thursday to 106.24. The yen weakened slightly through the Asia session. But at 151.59 per dollar, it is up 2.4% this week and has recovered losses suffered since the U.S. election. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.19 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.15 (SMA9). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.78 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.23(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares saw a recovery on Thursday, driven by tech stocks after a two-day decline prompted by worries about U.S. tariffs and France's unstable economy and politics. Attention is now on inflation reports for clues on future rate cuts.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.78percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.50 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday following the release of subdued U.S. inflation data, which reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction in the upcoming month..
Spot gold was up 0.4% to $2,645.67 per ounce, as of 1024 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,644.80, with low trading volumes expected as U.S. markets are closed for Thanksgiving.
Oil prices remained unchanged on Thursday following a surprising increase in US gasoline stocks and the postponing of the OPEC+ meeting on supply policy to December 5 from December 1.
Brent crude futures edged up by 8 cents to $72.91 a barrel by 0955 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 7 cents at $68.79.
