RBNZ Cuts Interest Rates Again as Inflation Cools and Recovery Remains Fragile 
RBA Reassesses Pricing Behaviors and Policy Impact Amid Inflation Pressures 
Japan’s Rising Inflation Strengthens Case for a Near-Term BOJ Rate Hike 
Brazil Central Bank Plans $2 Billion Dollar Auctions to Support FX Liquidity 
Japan’s Inflation Edges Higher in October as BOJ Faces Growing Pressure to Hike Rates 
Bank of Korea Holds Interest Rates Steady as Weak Won Limits Policy Flexibility 
Singapore Maintains Steady Monetary Outlook as Positive Output Gap Persists into 2025 
Even after several warnings over the possibility of rate hike in June or July, by Rosengren, Esther George, Williams, Dudley, Lockhart, Powell and Bullard, market participants are still a bit far from pricing it. As a matter of fact, hike expectations has slipped somewhat in last two days after sharp gains in days prior.
Just two days back market was pricing 30% probability of a hike in June and 58% probability in July.
As of now it is pricing just about 24% and 55%.
Hike expectations have shifted south in longer dated meeting too.
In September, market was pricing 65% chance of a hike and 67% for November. Both are down 2 percentage points.
However, hike expectations in December has gone up. 2 days back, market was pricing 34% chance of a second hike and now it is up 2%.
Today, FED chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak around 17:00 GMT. Market is focused on that and hawkish Yellen may lead to some more adjustments in expectations.
Dollar is up today but slipped back sharply in previous two against both emerging and developed countries' currency.
