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Even after several warnings over the possibility of rate hike in June or July, by Rosengren, Esther George, Williams, Dudley, Lockhart, Powell and Bullard, market participants are still a bit far from pricing it. As a matter of fact, hike expectations has slipped somewhat in last two days after sharp gains in days prior.
Just two days back market was pricing 30% probability of a hike in June and 58% probability in July.
As of now it is pricing just about 24% and 55%.
Hike expectations have shifted south in longer dated meeting too.
In September, market was pricing 65% chance of a hike and 67% for November. Both are down 2 percentage points.
However, hike expectations in December has gone up. 2 days back, market was pricing 34% chance of a second hike and now it is up 2%.
Today, FED chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak around 17:00 GMT. Market is focused on that and hawkish Yellen may lead to some more adjustments in expectations.
Dollar is up today but slipped back sharply in previous two against both emerging and developed countries' currency.
