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FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 18th February)
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 3.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 96.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 94.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 94.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 94.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is 11.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 86.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 1.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have marginally tightened.
- The market is pricing just one rate hike for 2019 and that with just 1.8 percent probability, compared to a 0 percent a week ago and 4.1 percent in the week before that, which means that the market is far from pricing a rate hike in 2019, despite Fed’s forecast of two hikes.
- The market is now pricing a rate cut in 2019 with 11.6 percent probability, compared to 19.5 percent a week ago, and 8.4 percent probability, a week before that.
