Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
BoE Policymaker Alan Taylor Signals No Need for Interest Rate Hike Amid Iran War Inflation Risks 
Goldman Sachs Sees Fed Holding Interest Rates Steady Until 2027 
South Korea Signals Possible Interest Rate Hike as Inflation Remains Elevated 
ECB Keeps July Rate Options Open Amid Iran War Energy Price Risks 
Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 18th February)
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 3.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 96.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 94.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 94.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 94.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is 11.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 86.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 1.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have marginally tightened.
- The market is pricing just one rate hike for 2019 and that with just 1.8 percent probability, compared to a 0 percent a week ago and 4.1 percent in the week before that, which means that the market is far from pricing a rate hike in 2019, despite Fed’s forecast of two hikes.
- The market is now pricing a rate cut in 2019 with 11.6 percent probability, compared to 19.5 percent a week ago, and 8.4 percent probability, a week before that.
