RBA Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points as Inflation Pressures Persist 
China Extends Gold Buying Streak as Reserves Surge Despite Volatile Prices 
Jerome Powell Attends Supreme Court Hearing on Trump Effort to Fire Fed Governor, Calling It Historic 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
Bank of Japan Signals Cautious Path Toward Further Rate Hikes Amid Yen Weakness 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
South Africa Eyes ECB Repo Lines as Inflation Eases and Rate Cuts Loom 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 18th March)
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 96.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 90.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 86.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 17.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 82.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 19.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 80.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 26.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 73.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have significantly eased.
- The market is pricing no rate hike for 2019.
- However, the market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 26.4 percent probability, compared to 16.1 percent last week, and 0 percent in the week before that.
