Fed Hike aftermath Series: Hike probabilities over next 12 months

FOMC increased interest rates again in March and maintained its forecast for three rate hikes in 2018. FOMC also forecasted a faster pace of hikes next year than previously forecasted. March decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 150-175 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 2nd April)

• May 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 97.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 2.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.  
   
• June 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 19.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 78.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 2.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25.
   
• August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 17.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 73.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 8.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 0.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
   
• September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 6.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 38.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 49.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 5.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 0.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
   
• November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 5.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 35.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 48.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 9.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 0.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
   
• December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 3.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 22.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 42.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 27 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
   

The probability is suggesting,

• Since our last review a week ago, the probability eased somewhat.
• Next hike is priced in June with 80.5 percent probability, instead of 85.3 percent a week ago.
• The market brought forwarded the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 55.3 percent probability compared to 58.9 percent a week ago.
• The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 31.8 percent probability instead of 32.2 percent probability just a week ago.

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