In the view of the markets a weak or strong labour market report might catapult the Fed's decision in one of two contrasting directions just shortly before the September meeting: no more rate hikes this year or even two at the same time.
Contrary to the ECB the Fed members do not seem so worried about the turbulence in China and the Emerging Markets and their possible adverse effects on the real economy. However, the US data was mixed recently and of no great help to the market in its decision making process whether there will be a rate step in September or not.
"A clear result for today's payrolls (e.g. below 190k or above 230k) would make it easier for the market participants. However, sadly things are not always as easy as one might hope. After all, the US unemployment rate is getting closer to full employment and as a result the number of new jobs will automatically have to decrease slowly. The number will be around 200k and that as a result we will know little more than before", says Commerzbank.


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