RBA Signals More Rate Hikes Possible as Australia Battles Stubborn Inflation 
Japan Economy Minister Downplays Inflation Risks Despite BOJ Warning 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady for 14th Month as Economic Recovery Remains Uneven 
Brazil Cuts Selic Rate to 14% as Inflation Eases but Risks Persist 
Japan PM Sanae Takaichi Unveils Growth Plan as BOJ Independence Concerns Lift Bond Yields 
Japan Services Producer Prices Rise 3.2% in June, Supporting BOJ Rate Hike Expectations 
Australia Inflation Cools as Core CPI Misses Forecasts, Easing RBA Rate Hike Pressure 
BOJ Seen Holding Rates at 1% While Keeping Inflation Risk Warning 
Chile Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.5% as Inflation and Global Risks Persist 
For today, the major focus would be the FOMC meeting on Funds rate, where a Fed funds rate likely to hike from 0.50% to 0.75% mark which is broadly projected (and clearly priced in by all markets). Also of interest would be the updated economic forecasts and Fed funds rate projection, with markets currently fully agreeing with the two hikes projected in 2018.
Thus, turbulence is expected but no dramatic moves in FX markets unless any surprises would come from the tone of the statement and Yellen’s press conference.
Well, in order to favor ongoing upswings which seem to be momentary, we advocate vanilla structures in 2w USDARS ATM delta calls.
On the flip side, the bearish stance of USDARS is grounded on prospects for a more extended agricultural exports high season on the back of corn production, together with tax amnesty inflows and the return of Argentina to markets in Q1’17.
Short USDARS, the Argentinean peso underperformed markedly on the month. Yet, we remain constructive ARS in H1’17 and continue to recommend selling 3m and up to 6m USDARS NDF.
Moreover, the central bank stood pat this week, decreasing concerns on political pressures after the authority cut the policy rate 200 bps in November.
Short USDARS 6-month NDF (sell at 16.50). Marked at -3.25%.
