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South Africa:
We are medium-term bearish ZAR, but following the sharp sell-off in recent weeks we do not hold active short positions at the moment.
Political risks are likely to be a key driver of the currency, in the near term. Several uncertainties are yet to be resolved.
Sovereign credit ratings downgrade risk has also risen. Our economist has forecasted a downgrade sub-investment by year-end even before the latest political tensions erupted.
Q2 growth has surprised to the upside, but challenges remain. Following a contraction in Q1 GDP of -1.2% QoQ SAAR, the economy rebounded 3.3% QoQ SAAR in Q2.
Stay Short in USDZAR: Current spot ref. at 13.7814, contemplating above political turbulence we recommend USDZAR shorts but with positional trades using diagonal credit put spreads (DCPS), strikes at 1w/1m 14.0561/13.6625 targeting 6.5% move lower to 12.8749 in medium terms. We place a stop-loss 1% higher than current levels at 13.7841.
Our trade horizon is 1 month. The position generates positive carry of about +60bp / month. Use narrowed tenors on the short side (preferably 1w or so would give you ideal entry point in the strategy). These diagonal option positions are likely to arrest both short-term upswings and long term downswings.
India:
The rupee slipped against the greenback as profit booking in equities along with lower risk appetite due to QE taper talks weighed on risk assets including rupee.
In the recent monetary policy, the six-member panel of RBI MPC, after series of brainstorming sessions over two days, unanimously decided to cut its key lending—the repo rate—by 25 basis points to 6.25 pct, as a newly set up panel felt that inflation levels were low enough to reduce loan rates.
From an FX perspective, we don’t see a great deal changing in terms of the RBI intervention policy under the new regime.
The dollar index ended higher posting gains of almost 0.67% as a sharp slide in GBP and JPY due to UK PM’s announcement of article 50 for Brexit and diversionary monetary policy supported gains in the USDINR.
