Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
JPMorgan Lifts Gold Price Forecast to $6,300 by End-2026 on Strong Central Bank and Investor Demand 
The US Congress finally passed the tax reform bill, which provides significant tax cuts including a reduction in the headline corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%. President Trump will now sign it into law, although reports suggest he may do so in the New Year. Asian equities were mixed overnight, with news of the US tax overhaul seemingly already priced in.
Buy NDX Call 6-month 102.5% keeping contingent on EURUSD above 1.235 for 0.85% – 77% discount to vanilla (3.7% for a 6-month 45 Delta call) (Spot references: NDX 6472, EURUSD 1.1860).
It is expected that EURUSD to gradually spike and approach the 1.23 level by the mid-year point. Tech would be the sector with the highest exposure to international revenue, so a weaker dollar would be a tailwind.
Moreover, the powerful worldwide tech cycle may not be dead yet and NASDAQ could surprise more on the upside. The historically low level of volatility makes call premia cheap and the negative correlation between NDX and EURUSD dramatically enhances that cheapness. The recent leg down in the index is an interesting entry point into the trade.
