NOK: Norwegian interest rates are very closely correlated to oil prices, so the FX/rates link implicitly embeds the sensitivity to the commodity complex as a core driver.
Not only is the NOK lagging the oil bounce and likely to catch up, but our commodity analysts expect prices to stay firm given the contraction of US production and robust global demand.
While this risk overhangs, we maintain a negative stance on the FX pair, with EUR/NOK expected to retest the recent lows around 9.15-17 by this quarter end (currently we aren't far away from this target).
Well, for sceptic bulls of EURNOK, can add their long FX portfolio with OTM call writings.
The main objective of writing calls is to collect the premiums when the options expire worthless.
One would write an out-of-the-money call and if the underlying spot FX price stays flat or drops, one would pocket the premiums and repeat the process as long as the perceived market condition remains unchanged.
CAD: A Fed rate hike in H2 16 and rising expectations ahead of FOMC speech later today are expected to support USDCAD from monetary divergence.
An expected, a plateauing of the oil price trend going forward also eliminates what has been one of the key factors behind CAD strength in the first half of the year. But CAD offers good long-term value, and investors should look to fade any sustained weakness in the coming months.
On hedging grounds, considering the above both fundamental aspects in mind, it is advisable to go long in 2M (1%) OTM 0.36 delta call while writing 2W (1%) ITM call with positive theta and delta closer to zero (both sides use European style options), this credit call spread option trading strategy is recommended when the spot FX price is anticipated to drop moderately in the near term and spikes up in long term.
Alternatively, on speculative grounds, iron condors are suggested, go short in OTM put and long in deep OTM put, simultaneously, go short in OTM call and long in deep OTM call of similar expiries.
These positions may result in a limited risk, and in non-directional trend to have the large probabilities of earning the limited returns when the underlying spot FX is perceived to have low volatility.


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