Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
U.S. Eases Venezuela Oil Sanctions to Boost American Investment After Maduro Ouster 
MAS Holds Monetary Policy Steady as Strong Growth Raises Inflation Risks 
India Budget 2026: Modi Government Eyes Reforms Amid Global Uncertainty and Fiscal Pressures 
Russia Stocks End Flat as MOEX Closes Unchanged Amid Mixed Global Signals 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
RBA Deputy Governor Says November Inflation Slowdown Helpful but Still Above Target 
China Home Prices Rise in January as Government Signals Stronger Support for Property Market 
Gold Prices Pull Back After Record Highs as January Rally Remains Strong 
Indonesian Stocks Plunge as MSCI Downgrade Risk Sparks Investor Exodus 
Bank of Japan Likely to Delay Rate Hike Until July as Economists Eye 1% by September 
Oil Prices Hit Four-Month High as Geopolitical Risks and Supply Disruptions Intensify 
Asian Currencies Hold Firm as Dollar Rebounds on Fed Chair Nomination Hopes 
Germany’s economy has shown unexpected resilience, with Deutsche Bank Research forecasting 0.3% full-year growth, contrary to market expectations of stagnation. According to the Federal Statistical Office, Germany's GDP rose 0.4% in Q1 2025, marking a potential turnaround after prolonged economic weakness.
A surge in March exports—particularly in automobiles and pharmaceuticals—played a key role. Deutsche Bank analysts noted that this spike likely reflected companies accelerating shipments ahead of potential tariff hikes. More importantly, domestic demand showed strength: private consumption grew 0.5%, while investment rose 0.9%. Construction activity also expanded for a second straight quarter, indicating ongoing recovery.
The only drag on domestic demand was public consumption, which dipped 0.3%, attributed to the federal government’s provisional budget. Deutsche Bank expects this to reverse once a formal budget is passed, potentially leading to increased fiscal spending later in the year.
Business sentiment indicators provided mixed signals. While the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index dipped below 50, the Ifo Business Climate Index has risen steadily since January, suggesting optimism in manufacturing. Conversations with corporate clients also revealed improved sentiment under Germany’s new government, despite global trade tensions.
Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank expects Q2 growth between 0.1% and 0.2%, supported by solid domestic consumption and investment. However, risks remain: potential U.S. tariff increases in July could dampen momentum, and Q3 is expected to be fragile. By Q4, with a likely expansionary fiscal plan for 2026 and normalized household savings, stronger consumption and investment may materialize.
Deutsche Bank argues that consensus forecasts are too pessimistic, saying Germany’s economic fundamentals are improving more than widely assumed. They believe the outlook is turning positive, even as external uncertainties persist.
