Global Markets Slip as Fed Officials Signal Caution on December Rate Cut

Global equities ended the week under pressure as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened hopes for another interest rate cut in December. MSCI’s global stock index slipped, while Wall Street posted a muted performance, weighed down by rising U.S. Treasury yields and renewed inflation concerns.

The S&P 500 rebounded from early losses thanks to bargain hunters, even as major markets from Tokyo to Paris closed sharply lower. Investors were also rattled by uncertainty surrounding Britain’s upcoming budget, adding to the strain on UK markets.

Several Fed policymakers struck a cautious tone, citing persistent inflation and a stabilizing labor market after two rate cuts earlier this year. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned that inflation remains “too hot,” suggesting he could dissent if the Fed moves forward with a December cut. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also signaled opposition, echoing her stance from October.

Following the record-long U.S. government shutdown—now 43 days without official data—traders adjusted expectations, pricing in a roughly 46% chance of a December rate cut, down from nearly 67% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Despite market jitters, the tech-heavy Nasdaq managed to close slightly higher, supported by renewed interest in high-performing tech stocks. Nvidia gained 1.8%, while the S&P 600 tech index inched up 0.3%. Investors are bracing for a busy week ahead featuring earnings from major retailers and Nvidia, key indicators of consumer strength and AI demand.

The Dow fell 0.65% on the day, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.05% and the Nasdaq rose 0.13%. Global markets mirrored the cautious mood, with European and Asian indexes retreating.

In commodities, oil prices jumped over 2% after a Ukrainian drone attack disrupted exports at Russia’s Novorossiisk port. Meanwhile, gold prices fell sharply as Treasury yields climbed, with spot gold dropping over 2%.

Crypto markets also retreated, with bitcoin down nearly 4% and ethereum slightly lower.