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Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its oil price outlook, projecting Brent crude to average $64 per barrel in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026, but warned of growing risks to its baseline forecast. The bank noted that increasing sanctions pressure on Russian and Iranian oil could push prices higher, especially as global spare capacity normalizes faster than expected.
However, Goldman flagged potential downside risks to its 800,000 barrels-per-day annual demand growth forecast for 2025–2026. Weaker U.S. economic data, heightened tariff rates, threats of secondary tariffs, and slowing economic activity have increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession within the next year, according to its economists.
On Sunday, OPEC+—including Russia—agreed to boost oil output by 547,000 barrels per day in September. Goldman expects the group to keep production steady afterward, predicting that rising OECD commercial stockpiles and fading seasonal demand will limit further hikes.
Brent crude was trading at $69.27 per barrel early Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate stood at $66.96. Despite sanctions, Goldman believes large-scale Russian supply disruptions are unlikely, citing strong imports by China and India and Moscow’s willingness to offer deeper discounts to retain buyers.
Industry sources revealed that Indian state refiners halted Russian oil purchases last week as discounts narrowed and U.S. President Donald Trump warned against buying from Moscow.
Goldman’s outlook reflects a complex oil market landscape where geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ policy, and global economic headwinds could sway prices in either direction. With Brent prices hovering near $69 and supply-demand dynamics shifting, the bank sees both upside potential from sanctions-driven supply risks and downside pressure from weaker demand growth.
