Google Antitrust Ruling Could Impact Apple’s $28B Search Deal, Says JPMorgan

A looming U.S. court ruling on antitrust remedies for Google’s search business could have major financial implications for Apple, according to JPMorgan analysts. Last year, a federal judge found Google guilty of spending billions to illegally maintain its monopoly as the world’s leading search engine, opening the door to potential structural changes.

One proposed remedy could force Google’s parent, Alphabet, to sell its Chrome browser—threatening the lucrative deal that makes Google the default search engine on Apple devices. JPMorgan estimates Apple receives roughly $28 billion annually from Google in traffic acquisition fees, including $12.5 billion from U.S.-based searches. Losing these payments could dent Apple’s earnings significantly.

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is pushing for a ban on distribution payments, which JPMorgan calls Apple’s “worst-case scenario,” potentially reducing earnings per share by about 10%. In contrast, Google’s proposed fixes would largely preserve current arrangements, offering Apple a “best-case scenario.”

A possible middle-ground outcome could allow Google to pay Apple only for users who actively choose Google as their default search option. While this would still hurt Apple’s revenue—impacting earnings by a low single-digit percentage—analysts note increased competition in search could offset some losses.

The ruling, expected in early August, could reshape online advertising and alter the dynamics of the multi-billion-dollar search deal between the two tech giants. For Apple investors, the decision may determine whether a critical and highly profitable revenue stream remains intact or faces a significant cut.