Inflation expectations in US and Europe stretch to multi-month highs

Inflation expectations are soaring across the developed world. After the United Kingdom opted out of the European Union in the June referendum, exchange rate declined sharply and gave rise to the inflation expectations; consumer inflation expectation has jumped to 2.75 percent in the UK for the year 2017. While there has been no Brexit in the Eurozone or in the United States, rising commodity prices are giving rise to the concerns and the effects of easy money seem to be kicking in.

In the United States, 5-year 5-year (5y-5y) forward inflation expectations have reached to 1.97 percent in November. That is the highest level since August last year. Similarly, in Eurozone, European Central Bank’s (ECB) preferred gauge 5y-5y forward inflation expectations have reached more than 1.5 percent this month, which is the highest level in eight months.

Concerns have already started surfacing with regard to central bank’s stimulus measures. The market is preparing for a rate hike from the US Federal Reserve in December and lower stimulus from the ECB, when the current measures of bond buying expire in March next year.