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Financial markets have shown great resilience despite the government shutdown, with the stock market reaching fresh highs. Driven by optimism in several industries, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 small-cap index have reached new highs. Historical data reveal that shutdowns normally have little impact on stocks, but growing valuations—especially the S&P 500 nearing dot-com bubble levels based on the Shiller—could cause problems. P/E ratios have brought up sustainability issues.
US Treasury yields have seen erratic movements, with the 10-year yield circling 4.119% as safe-haven demand countered economic issues. Though credit rating concerns persist if the shutdown lasts, bond markets remain operationally stable. Precious metals such gold, however, have soared almost record-breaking levels at almost $4,000 per ounce. Demand for safe havens, ETF inflows, and predictions of Fed rate reductions, amplified by shutdown-driven disruptions in economic data, have driven this rally.
Releases of economic data, including non-farm payroll statistics, have been postponed, therefore heightening uncertainty for Federal Reserve policy choices. Oxford Economics projects the shutdown may cut GDP growth by 0.1%–0.2% weekly, but experts argue the long-run effects will remain minor unless it persists significantly. Still, worries about high market valuations, increasing economic risks, and limited data availability keep weighing on the overall view.
