Net migrant inflows to New Zealand continue to be strong

Net migrant inflows to New Zealand continue to be strong and are unlikely to change significantly any time soon. A net of 5,600 people migrated to New Zealand in July, around the average of the last six months. This is down from the peak net monthly inflows seen in late 2015, but modestly so, stated ANZ in a research note. The net inflow, on a three month annualized basis, is running at a historically high 67.4k.

Permanent/long-term (PLT) arrivals, on a seasonally adjusted basis, were up 1.8 percent month-on-month in July. It continues to be at a historically high level. In the last 12 months, arrivals have totalled around 125,000, with a continuation of solid number of people arriving on work visas (39.4k), residence visas (15.5k) and returning New Zealand citizens (36.5k). Arrivals on student visa were also strong (26.8k). However, there are certain signs that this is slowing, with students coming from India falling 17 percent year-on-year.

PLT departures, in seasonally adjusted terms, were up 6.2 percent month-on-month. Even if this is a reasonable increase in departures in this month, the level is still lower than the one witnessed in April. Given the monthly volatility, the number of departures has been quite stable for the past year.

On seasonally adjusted terms, arrivals of visitors also increased 2.9 percent month-on-month in July to a new record high. With annual growth quickening more than 14 percent, the underlying trend continues to be strong. Solid growth from China, the US and South East Asia continues to be seen, noted ANZ.

All these regions have witnessed new airline routes and additional capacity has been set up in recent years. Even if the strong NZD might hurt the average visitor spend, total visitor spending appears set to be strong given the degree of arrivals growth, stated ANZ.