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New Zealand’s unadjusted current account deficit was slightly larger than expected in Q4, which saw a widening of the annual balance to 2.7 percent of GDP, from a revised 2.5 percent (previously 2.6 percent) in Q3. Despite the small surprise in today’s release, the deficit remains well below its historical average of 3.6 percent of GDP.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the current account deficit widened by NZD0.4 billion to NZD2.0 billion. The widening was driven entirely by a widening goods deficit to NZD0.5 billion from NZD0.1 billion in Q3, with strong imports offsetting a solid rise in exports.
The services surplus remained stable at NZD1.2 billion. Travel services exports lifted 1.4 percent, reflecting a thriving NZ tourism sector. The income deficit remained broadly stable overall, with offsetting movements across the primary and secondary balance. At NZD2.7 billion, the income deficit remains the largest component of New Zealand’s current balance, as it always has.
The external balance sheet continues to look in reasonable shape (by New Zealand’s standards at least). In large part due to valuation changes, the net international liability position fell by almost NZD1 billion to NZD155.2 billion. As a share of GDP, it fell to 54.8 percent, a new record low.
"We believe external imbalances are acting as a greater constraint on growth than is widely appreciated. That may sound surprising given both the current account deficit and external balance sheet are far healthier than is typical at this point in the cycle. But with more regulator and credit rating agency scrutiny over external borrowing, more onus is falling on saving to fund domestic investment. There are no obvious implications from today’s data for GDP figures, when we expect to see a 0.7 percent q/q expansion in real GDP," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.
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