Oil Prices Climb on Court Ruling, Russian Sanction Risks, and OPEC+ Speculation

Oil prices rose on Thursday following a U.S. trade court’s decision to block President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, easing market fears over global trade disruptions. Brent crude futures gained 81 cents, or 1.25%, reaching $65.71 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 83 cents, or 1.34%, to $62.62 at 0102 GMT.

The court ruled Trump exceeded his authority by imposing blanket tariffs on countries with trade surpluses over the U.S., sparking a broad rally across risk assets. However, analysts warned the optimism may be short-lived as the administration plans to appeal the decision.

Investors are also closely monitoring potential new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian crude exports, which could tighten global supply. Despite earlier sanctions over the Ukraine conflict, Russian oil exports have shown resilience, casting doubt on the impact of additional restrictions. According to Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar, further U.S. measures may have limited effect.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to meet Saturday, with speculation growing that the alliance could accelerate oil output hikes in July. Market participants are watching for signals amid growing global demand.

Adding to supply pressures, Chevron has ceased oil production activities in Venezuela after losing a key license in March. The halt disrupted roughly 290,000 barrels per day of exports, over one-third of Venezuela’s output. The South American nation also canceled Chevron cargoes in April due to payment concerns tied to sanctions.

Rystad Energy’s Mukesh Sahdev projects a bullish market through August, with global liquids demand set to outpace supply by 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day. Later Thursday, attention will shift to weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Early reports suggest U.S. crude and gasoline stocks declined, while distillate inventories rose.