Oil Prices Hold Steady as Ukraine Tensions and Fed Cut Expectations Support Market

Oil prices traded mostly steady in Asia on Friday, holding on to gains from the previous session as geopolitical uncertainty and growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut continued to support sentiment. As of 21:56 ET (02:56 GMT), Brent crude futures for February dipped 0.2% to $63.15 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.3% to $59.30 per barrel. Both benchmarks climbed nearly 1% on Thursday, with WTI poised for a weekly gain of about 1.5%.

The market found support after U.S.-Russia talks earlier this week produced no significant progress toward a Ukraine ceasefire. The stalled diplomatic efforts reduced hopes that sanctions on Russian oil would ease anytime soon, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude markets. Analysts noted that continued uncertainty, coupled with recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities, has strengthened expectations that global supply disruptions may persist.

At the same time, broader market sentiment improved as traders maintained strong bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next week’s policy meeting. Futures markets currently price in a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction, reflecting growing belief that the Fed may begin easing monetary policy as U.S. economic momentum cools. Additional support came from labor market data, with weekly jobless claims unexpectedly falling to 191,000 — the lowest since September 2022 — though economists cautioned that seasonal distortions could have influenced the figures. A weaker-than-expected private payrolls report showing a 32,000 job decline in November further signaled softening employment conditions.

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. A softer reading could reinforce expectations of imminent rate cuts, offering additional support to oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.