Oil Prices Retreat as Kurdistan Restarts Exports and OPEC+ Eyes Output Hike

Oil prices slipped nearly 1% on Monday as crude exports resumed from Iraq’s Kurdistan region and expectations grew that OPEC+ will increase production in November, adding pressure to global supply dynamics.

Brent crude futures fell 63 cents, or 0.90%, to $69.50 a barrel by 0023 GMT, retreating after hitting the highest level since July 31 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 65 cents, or 0.99%, to $65.07, giving back most of last week’s rally.

Analysts noted that concerns over rising supply continue to weigh on the market, even as near-term fundamentals remain tight. Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand, said ongoing fears of production increases are limiting price gains.

Over the weekend, crude oil began flowing again through a pipeline from northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Ceyhan port. This marks the first shipment in two and a half years, following an interim deal between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign producers. Initial exports are expected at 180,000–190,000 barrels per day, with volumes potentially rising to 230,000 bpd. The United States had urged for the restart, which brings additional barrels into the global market.

At the same time, OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are preparing to approve another production hike of at least 137,000 bpd at their upcoming meeting, according to sources. Rising oil prices are motivating the group to boost output and capture market share. However, OPEC+ has been underproducing, pumping nearly 500,000 bpd below its targets, which has so far prevented fears of oversupply from materializing.

Last week, Brent and WTI posted their strongest gains since June, rising over 4%, fueled by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy facilities that curbed fuel exports. Meanwhile, Russia escalated attacks on Kyiv and other regions, further fueling geopolitical risks that keep oil markets volatile.