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In its mid-year work report released soon after the publication of the trade data for May, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Wednesday reiterated its forecast for economic growth for 2016 at 6.8 percent. However, it slashed forecasts for exports to a 1 percent drop from a previous expectation for 3.1 percent growth. Despite the cut in exports, the central bank sees domestic recovery remaining on track.
“Since the beginning of this year, the global and domestic economic environment has experienced a number of changes,” the PBOC said in the report.
“Reflecting these recent developments, we revised our China macroeconomic forecasts for 2016. Compared with our published forecasts in December last year, we maintain our baseline projection of 2016 real GDP growth at 6.8 percent.”
Data released earlier on Wednesday showed that China's global trade surplus widened to $49.98bn in May from April’s $45.6bn, missing estimates of $55.70bn. Exports fell 4.1 percent, compared to analysts’ forecast for a 4 percent drop and the previous month’s 1.8 percent slide. Imports dipped 0.4 percent in May but it was an improvement on April’s 10.9 percent plunge and better than expectations for a 6.8 percent decrease.
The PBoC also warned in its mid-year work report that the government's push to reduce debt levels and overcapacity could increase bond default risks and make it more difficult for companies to raise funds. The PBoC upgraded its forecast for fixed-asset investment growth to 11 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from estimates made late last year. It also expects consumer price inflation to rise 2.4 percent this year, 0.7 percentage points higher than its earlier forecast.
