Philippine headline inflation likely to average 4.1 pct in 2018, BSP to stay on hold - ANZ

Philippine headline inflation continued to be elevated in the month of March. On a year-on-year basis, the consumer price inflation accelerated to 4.3 percent from February’s 3.8 percent year-on-year. The February inflation reading was downwardly revised from the initial estimate of 3.9 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, the headline CPI stayed firm at 0.6 percent on a sequential basis in the month, although below the 0.7 percent seen in the prior month.

Higher prices of tobacco and alcoholic beverages and food mainly drove the consumer price inflation. The former continue to reflect the impacts of higher taxes while the food component was driven by higher prices of corn, rice, fruits and vegetables.

The first quarter of 2019 consumer price inflation average came in at 3.8 percent year-on-year, slightly lower than the central bank’s full year projection of 3.9 percent. According to an ANZ research report, the headline inflation is expected to average 4.1 percent this year, the upper bound of the official target range of 2 percent to 4 percent.

“We believe that the BSP will stay on hold through 2018”, added ANZ.

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